The PGA Tour restarts with a new twist to the Fall series. It’s the first leg of FedEx Cup Fall, where players ranked 70th or worse in the FedEx Cup standings after the Wyndham Championship will compete across seven events to try and keep their card. That will start this week at the 2023 Fortinet Championship at the Silverado Resort in Napa, California. As always, here is your early deep dive on the 2023 Fortinet Championship and a preview of how to bet.
2023 Fortinet Championship Preview
The Field
Players of note at the 2023 Fortinet Championship include Ryder Cuppers Max Homa and Justin Thomas. They’re joined at Silverado with Sahith Theegala, Cameron Davis, Matt Kuchar, Stephan Jaeger and many more.
For the full field, click here.
The Golf Course
The golf course at the Silverado Resort was built in 1955. In 1966, Robert Trent Jones renovated the golf course. The North Course on the property hosted several PGA Tour events, including the Kaiser Open and the Anheuser Busch Classic. It was most recently dubbed as the Safeway Open. In 2021, the tournament has a new sponsor in Fortinet.
In 2010, Johnny Miller spearheaded the purchase of the Silverado Resort with the aid of several local businessmen. He then redesigned the golf course. Part of Miller’s motivation to purchase the resort was fond memories of the golf course. He won two tournaments there in 1974 and 1975.
While self-admitting, he’s not the best golf architect on the block. Miller felt confident that he could make significant improvements to the golf course because he “knew (he) could do a better job than anybody because (he) knew every square inch of (the property).” So humble, Johnny.
Among the renovations Johnny made to the golf course was lengthening it to just over 7,200 yards and widening the narrow corridors of the golf course. Johnny Miller loved being aggressive off the tee, and he wanted to build a golf course where the players could hit driver as much as possible. While the fairways aren’t as wide as some other places on the PGA Tour, almost all the holes feature long, straight-away tee-to-green layouts where golfers can pick a line off the tee and bomb away. Miller also did significant work re-configuring both fairway and greenside bunkers.
As far as a golf course and tournament goes, it’s meh. But for a fan experience, it’s one of the more top-notch tournaments to attend. Napa Valley is a foodie and wine-o mecca, and this tournament pulls out all the stops. Fans are treated to numerous wine and liquor tents with the best Napa Valley offerings. Celebrity Chefs like Thomas Keller and Iron Chef Morimoto do cooking demonstrations to delight the palate. And there are concerts every night, including a performance by the Stone Temple Pilots this year.
It might take some convincing of the wife to go with you to a golf tournament. But if you dangle a trip to Napa where she can sip on Chardonnay and munch on Morimoto’s cuisine creations all day, that might be enough to do it.
In 2023, the golf course underwent a “reimagination”. Which was a fancy way of saying the golf course was rerouted. While whole numbers changed, the golf course overall remained untouched. As such, the only difference between this year’s Fortinet Championship and last year’s is the order in which it will be played. For more information about the re-routing, click here.
Betting Strategies
General Information:
As mentioned earlier, Johnny Miller most recently renovated the golf course in 2011. On the whole, most of the bones of it are of Robert Trent Jones, who completed his renovation of Silverado in 1966.
Silverado Resort plays to a Par 72 and at 7,123 yards.
Here’s a look at all the Par 3’s, 4’s, and 5’s at Silverado, per the 2022 tournament. Please note that the hole numbers referenced below are ones prior to the re-routing. However, the architecture of the holes itself didn’t change.
Par 3’s
The following are the lengths and scoring metrics of the Par 3’s at Silverado Resort. This will preview how these holes will play at the 2023 Fortinet Championship.
Hole No. 2 (per 2022 Fortinet Championship)
- Average Length: 195.5 yards
- Scoring Average: +0.13
- Birdie %: 7.5% (less than 13.2% PGA Tour average in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 19.5%
Hole No. 7 (per 2022 Fortinet Championship)
- Average Length: 202.8 yards
- Scoring Average: +0.11
- Birdie %: 9.6% (less than 13.2% PGA Tour average in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 19.5%
Hole No. 11 (per 2022 Fortinet Championship)
- Average Length: 170.5 yards
- Scoring Average: +0.06
- Birdie %: 10.1% (less than 13.2% PGA Tour average in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 14.3%
Hole No. 15 (per 2022 Fortinet Championship)
- Average Length: 180.3 yards
- Scoring Average: +0.20
- Birdie %: 7.0% (less than 13.2% PGA Tour average in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 22.4%
Since 2015, the average length of the Par 3’s at Silverado are 43rd out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour. They also rank 42nd out of the 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. In 2022, however, the Par 3’s ranked 11th out of 40 golf courses played during the 2022-2023 season. The poor weather conditions were likely the biggest contributor to its overall difficulty in 2022.
Par 4’s
The following are the lengths and scoring metrics of the Par 4’s by range at Silverado Resort. This will preview how these holes will play at the 2023 Fortinet Championship.
- < 375 Yards: 20.0%
- 375-400 Yards: 7.5%
- 400-425 Yards: 42.5%
- 425-450 Yards: 20.0%
- 450-475 Yards: 10.0%
- 475+ Yards: 0.0%
Collective Birdie or Better %: 17.2% (higher than 16.62% PGA Tour average in 2022-2023 Season)
Collective Bogey+ %: 17.6%
Since 2015, the Par 4’s at Silverado Resort rank 60th out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. In 2022, they ranked 22nd out of 40 golf courses played in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour during the 2022-2023 season.
Par 5’s
The following are the lengths and scoring metrics of the Par 5’s at Silverado Resort, per the 2022 Tournament. This will preview how these holes will play at the 2023 Fortinet Championship.
Hole No. 5
- Average Length: 533.5 yards
- Scoring Average: -0.34
- Birdie+ %: 42.1% (lower than 44.4% average on PGA Tour in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 8.1%
Hole No. 9
- Average Length: 565.5 yards
- Scoring Average: -0.23
- Birdie+ %: 36.6% (lower than 44.4% average on PGA Tour in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 12.3%
Hole No. 16
- Average Length: 573.3 yards
- Scoring Average: -0.27
- Birdie+ %: 37.3% (lower than 44.4% average on PGA Tour in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 10.3%
Hole No. 18
- Average Length: 578.0 yards
- Scoring Average: -0.35
- Birdie+ %: 40.6% (lower than 44.4% average on PGA Tour in 2022-2023 season)
- Bogey+ %: 5.0%
Since 2015, the Par 5’s at Silverado Resort rank 47th out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. In 2022, they played as the 15th most difficult of the 40 golf courses played on the PGA Tour during the 2022-2023 season. Like the Par 3’s, the adverse weather conditions likely played a role in their increased difficulty last season.
Agronomy
The fairways at Silverado Resort are a combination of bermuda, poa, and rye (a bizarre agronomic mix). The rough is a mix of bluegrass and ryegrass and is cut to 2.5 inches. Compared to other bluegrass/ryegrass rough, that’s not very long. The greens are a mix of poa annua and bentgrass and run rather slow on the stimpmeter. Since the golf course is in California, it likely features a higher composition of poa annua than bentgrass on the greens.
Per the GCSAA, the golf course had an excessively wet winter with 50+ inches of rain that fell during the season. The golf course flooded out multiple times, including the loss of a bridge on the course. However, mild temperatures in the summer have helped make the golf course in great condition heading into this tournament.
Off-The-Tee
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks 35th out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty off-the-tee. In 2022, the tee shots ranked 14th out of 40 golf courses in terms of difficulty. It’s ranked slightly above average in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour for the last three seasons.
Since 2015, all measured drives at Silverado Resort average 286.6 yards in length. That ranks 47th out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015 in terms of length. In 2022, the average measured drive at Silverado was 290.6 yards, good for 17th out of 40 golf courses on the PGA Tour. Over the last three years, the average drive has gotten much longer than the historical average at the golf course. Players seem to be taking a more aggressive approach off the tee.
Since 2015, the average driving accuracy at Silverado Resort is only 51.8%. That’s the 11th lowest driving accuracy rate of all golf courses played since 2015. In 2022, only 47.1% of the field hit the fairway on their drive. That was good for the 2nd lowest rate on the PGA Tour last season. In addition, Silverado Resort has ranked inside the Top 5 in most fairways missed on the PGA Tour since the 2017 season.
A primary reason for the low driving accuracy rates is that the fairways are statistically the 5th narrowest on the PGA Tour of all golf courses played since 2015. It has ranked as the second narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour every year since 2020.
However, it is not penal at all to miss a fairway at Silverado. Since 2015, it ranks 62nd out of 86 golf courses in terms of the scoring difference between balls that find the fairway and those that miss a fairway. Of that, it ranks 51st out of 86 golf courses in terms of the scoring difference between fairway approach shots and shots from the rough. Lastly, only 1.8% of all tee shots incur a penalty stroke, which is 65th out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015.
The combination of low rough, manageable fairway bunkers and slow, flat, and typically softer greens doesn’t highly penalize players for errant drives at Silverado Resort.
Approach
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks 34th out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty with the approach shots. In 2022, the approach shots ranked 10th out of 40 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in the 2022-2023 season in terms of difficulty. The adverse weather conditions seen last year likely was a contributor to its difficulty.
Despite low driving accuracy rates and smaller greens, players generally hit the greens in regulation at Silverado at a fairly high rate. Since 2015, the average green in regulation rate at Silverado Resort is 68.2%. That’s the 28th highest rate of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015. Last year, the green in regulation rate was 66.7%, which ranked 16th out of 40 golf courses in terms of GIR % during the 2022-2023 season.
In addition, Silverado Resort features the 42nd (out of 86) most difficult approach shots from under 150 yards. However, it ranked as the 16th toughest out of 40 golf courses played on the PGA Tour during the 2022-2023 season. It also ranks as the 30th (out of 86) most difficult golf course on the PGA Tour in approach shots over 150 yards since 2015. This includes ranking 10th out of 40 golf courses in 2022 in terms of difficulty. Again, the adverse weather conditions likely was the culprit of its increased difficulty.
Finally, here is the approach shot distribution chart from the 2022 Fortinet Championship (per DataGolf):
Per review of prior years of distribution charts, this allocation is very representative of the historical percentages at the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort.
Around The Green
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks as the 32nd out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty around the green. However, the around-the-green conditions at Silverado has ranked inside the Top 12 in terms of difficulty in six of the last 10 years, including 7th toughest during the 2022-2023 season.
The most difficult areas around the green seem to be from the fairway. Silverado Resort has been one of the 10 most difficult golf courses to get up and down from the fairway in seven of the last 9 years. In addition, it’s ranked 10th toughest to get up and down from the rough in two of the last four years.
Putting
Since 2015, Silverado Resort ranks as the 33rd out of 86 golf courses played on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. However, it hasn’t ranked as difficult to putt on in recent years. From 2015-2019, it ranked as one of the seven most difficult greens to putt on three out of 5 years. However, for the last four seasons, it has ranked either average or well below average in terms of difficulty on the greens.
Overall, the greens are in excellent shape and don’t have a ton of undulation to it. However, it’s possible that that poa annua could pose a problem for those not used to putting on that grass. If the greens are more heavily concentrated with poa, they’ll be tougher to putt on. If they’re more bentgrass, however, then it’ll be much easier.
Predictive Skillsets
Here’s the predictive skillset chart of what types of players are expected to do well at Silverado (per DataGolf). This will preview what types of players are expected to do well at the 2023 Fortinet Championship.
By far, the most correlated predictive skill set is total driving. There’s a higher correlation to success at Silverado from players who possess above average length and accuracy. Given the narrow and tight corridors, the ability to hit the ball long and straight is a huge asset at Silverado.
Recent winners at Silverado include Max Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, and Kevin Tway. All of them typically drive the ball very well (particularly after the distance gains made by Stewart Cink before his win).
In addition, there’s also a slightly above average correlation between players who are good putters and success at Silverado Resort. While Max Homa is a two-time defending champion and excellent on west coast putting surfaces, recent winners like Cameron Champ and Stewart Cink don’t really fit this model.
However, there’s a significantly below average correlation between good iron players and good scramblers and success at Silverado. Part of this might be due to the overall weak composition of the field, as some of the more elite ball strikers tend to skip this tournament. In addition, it’s possible that due to the higher green in regulation rates at the course the ability to get up and down isn’t all that important of a skill.
In Tournament Strokes Gained
Here is a distribution chart of the variance in total strokes gained based on in tournament performance. This chart demonstrates what forces have an influence on how a player separates themselves from the field (per DataGolf):
Typically, players are better able to separate themselves with the putter at Silverado more than they typically would at the average PGA Tour stop. In layman’s terms, this can turn into a bit of a putting contest. In addition, the most recent Fortinet Championships have shown a higher influence in putting AND around the green performance towards the variance in total strokes gained, and far less of an influence with ball striking.
For tee shots, however, a player’s accuracy on the week has had a higher influence on total strokes gained than the typical PGA Tour event, as well as a much higher influence than distance would.
The 2020 tournament won by Stewart Cink, however, was an outlier. That tournament saw significantly easier scoring conditions than other recent Fortinet Championships. And in that tournament, ball striking was a way heavier influence on the variance in total strokes gained than around the green and putting were, which is opposite of more recent Fortinet Championships. It could suggest that in favorable scoring conditions (i.e. good weather), the importance in ball striking at Silverado increases dramatically compared to other years.
And that’s what we should have in store for the 2023 Fortinet Championship. The weather forecast calls for low to mid 80’s temperatures all four days, no rain, and light winds. Scoring should be favorable in 2023. As such, the importance of good ball striking likely will be a heavier driver in scoring this year than past Fortinet Championships.
