Week 3 of the NFL season is here already, and we have seven teams that are 2-0. On the other side, we have nine teams that are 0-2. Do not worry. In seven of the last ten seasons, we have seen a 0-2 team make the playoffs. Having a 14-team playoff definitely helps, as well. Let’s look at some of the trends from the first two weeks and see how they can help us make out our Week 3 NFL picks.
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Week 3 NFL Picks: Three Underdog Picks to Upset this Week
Is there even a home-field advantage anymore? Home Teams are 13-19, including the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, who combine for 0-4 at home already! We saw the 49ers take over the Rams stadium, and this just doesn’t seem to be an advantage for the majority of teams right now. We will keep monitoring this. Of course, two weeks is a small sample size. But, as of now, the away team has had the advantage.
Road trips over home cooking, apparently, away teams are 19-13 after two weeks. The San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins played both of their games away. They are 4-0 combined. Early in the season, we don’t have freezing weather in Green Bay or snow in Buffalo. We have plenty of away favorites on the slate again this week.
We had more upsets in Week 1 than we did in Week 2. That, of course, is partly because Vegas had more information, and we had some injuries that changed things quite a bit. So far, we have seen 18 favorites win, and 13 favorites lose. The underdogs are alive, and they are making some noise. Don’t be afraid of underdogs, even on the road, based on what we have seen so far this season.
Let’s look at my picks for Week 3!
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
New York Giants @ San Francsco 49ers
Giants Moneyline:+420
49ers Moneyline:-550
My Pick: 49ers
The New York Giants will be without at least one, if not both, of their best offensive players. Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas are both questionable. Barkley is a game-time decision. This team barely beat the worst team in the league. The New York Giants have no chance against the San Francisco 49ers, who arguably look like the best team in the NFL. As of now, 96% of betters are betting on the 49ers, and so am I.
Sunday at 1:00 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
Falcons Moneyline: +143
Lions Moneyline: -165
My Pick: Lions
The Detroit Lions lost a tough one last week to Seattle. They are 1-1 and are still the favorites over the 2-0 Atlanta Falcons. Both teams have strong offensive lines and strong running games. The Lions’ David Montgomery is questionable but could play on Sunday. At 46.5, this is not expected to be a high-scoring affair, but I think the Lions take this one. Goff is playing really well, and the Ridder won’t be able to keep up.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings
Chargers Moneyline: -106
Vikings Moneyline: -109
My Pick: Chargers
This one is close; the Chargers open up +1.5, but the Vikings are +1. Neither of these teams is off to the start they participated. The Vikings are 1-1. They played better than expected against the Eagles. They also lost to the Buccaneers at home to open the season. The Chargers have lost two really close games in true Chargers fashion. This week, they get it right and get their first win of the season. Currently, 59% of betters are taking LA.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Saints Moneyline: +106
Packers Moneyline: -125
My Pick: Saints
The Saints and Packers have had great starts to the season. Both of their new quarterbacks are off to good starts, but both of them can’t win this weekend. Right now, the betters are split, with 48% putting their money on Green Bay and 52% on New Orleans. I am taking the Saints’ defense that has held teams at 20 or fewer points in 10 straight games. The Saints are playing great, and this is a true test for Jordan Love.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans Moneyline: +350
Jaguars Moneyline: -415
My Pick: Jaguars
The Jaguars are currently receiving 98% of the bets, and they are getting my money, too. This team played well and played a tough game against Kansas City. Jacksonville’s offense is just too explosive for this Houston team. The Texans played much better in Week 2 despite an estimated offensive line. C.J. Stroud showed improvements, but this team is still far away. The Jaguars are here, and they have continued where they left off in 2022. Jags win big!
Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins
Broncos Moneyline: +240
Dolphins Moneyline: -285
My Pick: Dolphins
Miami is off to a hot start, and their offense looks incredible. The Broncos defense is tough, but they will have their hands full with Miami. Jaylen Waddle is in Concussion Protocol, but Tyreek Hill is healthy and a problem. Denver’s old coach revisits in a revenge game, looking for Fangio to be aggressive against his old team. Dolphins go to 3-0 and show they are a force in the AFC.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Titans Moneyline: +135
Browns Moneyline: -148
My Pick: Browns
Cleveland at home gets the win as underdogs. The Browns lost a tough game against Pittsburgh and lost Nick Chubb for the season. Cleveland will get an opportunity to unleash this passing attack versus Tennessee. The team has invested heavily over the last two seasons in improving their passing game. We see it on display this week. On the other side of the ball, their defensive line should overmatch Tennessee’s offensive line.
Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders
Bills Moneyline: -275
Commanders Moneyline: +240
My Pick: Bills
The Commanders are 2-0, and Buffalo is still getting 92% of the bets. Everyone knows that Washington has had a cake schedule, and Buffalo is their first real challenge. They almost lost a week in a thriller after allowing a hail mary against Denver. The Commanders will lose this week, and I do not expect it to be particularly close. Buffalo is strong on both sides of the ball, and their offense is too strong for Washington.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Colts Moneyline: +315
Ravems Moneyline: -345
My Pick: Ravens
Baltimore has had a strong start to the season, and Lamar Jackson looks good. He looked more comfortable in the offense in Week 2. The team was able to get Mark Andrews back, which always helps.
They also got more wide receivers involved this week. Probably the most impressive thing about the team was overcoming injuries in Week 2. They had several offensive linemen hurt, and J.K. Dobbins is out for the year. They ran the ball well and will do it again this Sunday. Minshew Mania will be fun to watch, but I am putting my money on Baltimore.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Patriots Moneyline: -142
Jets Moneyline: +126
My Pick: Jets
Let’s not forget that the Jets beat Buffalo. This team is really good, and I know Zach Wilson works against them at times. They found a way to beat Buffalo with Zach Wilson under center for all but four snaps. Look for New York to lean on the running game and their defense at home. The Jets get back on track with a win inside the division, and their defense carries them to victory.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Panthers Moneyline: +210
Seahawks Moneyline: -240
My Pick: Seahawks
The Seahawks surprised a lot of people last week, including me. Seattle was without both starting tackles, and they played fantastic. I expected the Lions’ defensive front to be the difference, and they were not. Seattle leaned on their running game, and Geno played great. The Seahawks have plenty of weapons on offense, and Geno was dishing it out on Sunday. Carolina is getting better, but I agree with the 94% of bets on Seattle.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs
Bears Moneyline: +550
Chiefs Moneyline: -700
My Pick: Chiefs
The Chicago Bears look like they will be competing with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst team. Unfortunately, they could end up in a quarterback search if things continue. Justin Fields is really struggling, and this offense can’t find any rhythm. They have no identity on either side of the ball, and the Chiefs are just too good. This is going to be a blood bath. Expect the Chiefs to cover easily.
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Cowboys Moneyline: -600
Cardinals Moneyline: +500
My Pick: Cowboys
Dallas has looked dominant this year, and they are playing really well. The Cowboys’ defense is absolutely on fire, and the Cardinals are in for a tough day. Arizona is just outmatched, and the Cowboys continue to roll. Give me Dallas to win big, to cover, and to go to 3-0.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Steelers Money Line: +118
Raiders Moneyline: -138
My Pick: Steelers
The Steelers won last night and beat a tough Cleveland Browns team. Their defense has stepped it up and looked good this year. The offense is starting to catch up. Jaylen Warren offers them a spark, and George Pickens is a stud. The Raiders’ defense struggled again last week and will continue to struggle against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Davante Adams could miss this game. He is in Concussion protocol. Even without Diontae Johnson, the Steelers have plenty of firepower on offense to beat up this soft defense.
Monday at 4:15 PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Eagles Moneyline: -218
Buccaneers Moneyline: +190
My Pick: Eagles
Philadelphia is going through some growing pains with their changes as well as losses this offseason. But they are just fine, and they are going to hand Tampa their first loss of the year. The Buccaneers and Baker have impressed so far, but Philly is a tall task. Philadelphia’s front is going to give Baker, and that offensive line fits all day. Look for the bad Baker to show up and the Eagles to win this one.
Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals
Rams Moneyline: +115
Bengals Moneyline: -125
My Pick: Rams
This one might look a little crazy, but does Joe Burrow even play? They are talking about shutting him down and playing this safe. Los Angeles is playing great, and they are going to give the Bengals are harder time than anticipated. If Joe Burow doesn’t play, the Rams will turn into heavy favorites. Put the money on the Rams now before it is too late.
