Coaching is an underrated and tough job in any sport. When the team is doing well, the credit goes to the players. When things get a little bad, it’s due to coaching. I think coaching in the NBA is one of the harder jobs in sports. With that said, today we will dive into some NBA Coach of the Year analysis and best bets to make for the upcoming year.
Go here for more NBA content!
2023-2024 NBA Coach Of The Year Best Bets & Analysis
Coach Of The Year History & Process
This market is and always has been challenging to wager on. It is the only award you can win and be fired all within a week’s time. Apologies to Dwayne Casey and George Karl if you gentlemen are reading. When I break down this market, much like all awards, I start with the process of elimination.
No coach has ever won back-to-back, so we can cross off Mike Brown. After that, I like to cross off the coaches who faced one another in the Finals. Lastly, I draw a line through the bad teams (Wizards, Hornets, Rockets, etc.).
After this process, you should be at around 20 coaches. Historically, this award is predicated on two variables. The first is win improvement year over year, and the second is a historic season similar to what we saw with the 73-9 Warriors.
Obviously, that Warriors season is an outlier, but if Wes Unseld Jr. leads the Wizards to a playoff spot, he’s winning the award. That’s a better example of an outlier season that could throw us off course. Ask yourself, which team can I see exceeding expectations, or which team who made a playoff run as a low seed (6-8) can get a top three seed?
The last seven winners, outside of Casey, were in the first three years of their tenure. Four of those were in year one. This year, we have seven new coaches, so keep that in mind. The last ten winners are split directly down the middle as far as conference, so there is no real edge in that. Now that we have the formula, let’s get a few winners in the portfolio.
Jason Kidd – 19/1
Two years removed from a Western Conference Finals appearance, I think this is a make-it-or-break-it year for Jason Kidd. Last season was a disaster as the Mavs went 38-44 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018-2019. The record last year may have been a little exaggerated due to the late-season “tanking” as well as inserting Kyrie Irving mid-season.
Kyrie played in 20 games as a Maverick, and the team went 8-12 in that span. Inside those 20 games, he played 16 games with Luka and went 5-11. Both star players have a full off-season to get comfortable with one another and build some chemistry, which is a plus.
On the other side of things, the Mavs have upgraded the roster significantly through free agency and the draft. This team should improve significantly. How much? Well, their win total is set at 45.5, which would be a seven-game improvement minimum.
Seven-game improvements are not going to win us this award. I think the ceiling for this team is 50 wins. The Western Conference is loaded, I know, but hear me out. I’m expecting several teams at the top (Kings, Memphis, Denver) to take a step back. Winning is not easy, especially in the West, but those wins have to be allocated somewhere.
52-30, and a top three seed is what wins Kidd this award. It seems like a lot to ask but in 2021-2022, with a less talented team, he led them to 52 wins and failed to win the award. This time, he brings it home, and we cash our ticket.
Darvin Ham – 22/1
I have the Lakers as my number-one power-rated team coming into the season. They have had one of the best offseasons of any team and will be looking to get back to the Western Conference Finals after being swept last year. The Lakers became the 4th team to start 2-10 or worse and finish above .500 since 1981.
Now, is that coaching or players? Well, it’s always a combination of both, but to support our bet, we’re going with Ham adjusting and managing the team better.
A 43-39 record last year and a win total of 47.5 (which is too low) implies at least a four-win improvement. That is not going to get it done, but I see a 50+ win season and a top-three overall record in the NBA.
Health is always an issue when dealing with the Lakers, but the depth they have and their comfort with playing without LeBron and/or Anthony Davis is very high. Both players played under 60 games last year and were 20-15 in games that they played together.
Ham did a great job switching up the rotations and got better with his in-game adjustments. He wasn’t afraid to shake things up in high-leverage situations and seemed to get the players to buy in defensively, which, in the end, helped their offense. Post-trade deadline, the Lakers were one of the best teams in the NBA, posting an 18-9 record. They rode that momentum all the way to the conference finals, so Ham has shown several factors you want to see in a coach of the year candidate.
