Week 6 of the NFL season is already here! Last week started with the Chicago Bears getting their first win of the year. We missed that game but rebounded for a 9-5 finish last week. The Carolina Panthers remain winless, while both the 49ers and Eagles remain undefeated. All three teams play this week. We will see if the Panthers can get their first win and if the others can keep streaking. Here are my Week 6 NFL Picks
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Week 6 NFL Picks & NFL Betting Trends
Reminder: Bye Weeks (Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers)
NFL Betting Trends:
The under are cashing in at over 58% so far this season in four-quarter games. Home-field advantage is a thing of the past. Road teams are winning over 56% of the time. Three teams (DET, MIA, and SF) have gone 4-1 against the spread this season. Four teams (SEA, TB, PHI, and LAR) all only have one loss or tie against the spread. The Giants are 0-5 against the spread, while Carolina and Denver are 0-4-1. Six teams have beaten the spread once this season (CIN, ATL, NE, NO, MIN, and CHI).
Survival Pool Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Underdog of the Week: Chicago Bears +3
Lock of the Week: San Francisco 49ers -6.5
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Denver Broncos (+10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Broncos Moneyline: +425
Chiefs Moneyline: -550
My Pick: Chiefs Moneyline
Right now, 59% of betters are taking the 10.5 points and betting on Denver to cover. The Broncos have only covered once this season. I don’t think the Chiefs are the team I am going to bet against here. Denver is a mess, and are on the cusp of a fire sale. Give me the Chiefs moneyline and the over of 47.5 on this one. Denver has gone over in all but one of their last 10. Kelce can hang out in the box with Taylor, and it would not matter here.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
Baltimore Ravens (-4) @ Tennessee Titans
Ravens Moneyline:
Titans Moneyline:
My Pick: Titans +4
Baltimore fumbled the game away last week. The wide receivers could not catch the ball, and this once formidable defense is pedestrian. Give me the Titans to cover, and currently, 76% of betters agree. Tennessee and Baltimore have gone under in a combined 23 of their last 28 games. I would take the Ravens moneyline, the Titans +4, and the Under in this game.
Indianapolis Colts (+4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts Moneyline: +176
Jaguars Moneyline: -198
My Pick: Jaguars Moneyline
The Jacksonville Jaguars just had a great trip in London, winning both games. Indianapolis is playing really well, and 80% of the public is taking the Colts plus four. Jacksonville has an opportunity to reclaim the top spot in the division. I do think they keep the momentum going and beat their old quarterback. As of now, 76% of the public is taking the Jaguars’ moneyline. I am taking the Jaguars in this one. They are heating up.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Chicago Bears
Vikings Moneyline: -142
Bears Moneyline: +120
My Pick: Bears +2.5
This game got a lot more interesting when Justin Jefferson hit Injured Reserve. Still, only 55% of the public are betting on Chicago to cover, and 68% are taking the Vikings moneyline. Chicago’s offense had two great weeks in a row, but they might be down to their third-string running back. Roschon Johnson is in concussion protocol, and Khalil Herbert is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle sprain.
I am taking the Bears in an upset this week and taking the three extra points to the bank. Chicago has gone over in every game this year, so give me that as well. Defense will be optional in this one, and we could see some fun fantasy football performances.
Carolina Panthers (+13.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Panthers Moneline: +660
Dolphins Moneyline: -800
My Pick: Dolphins -13.5
Miami has been rolling, and they have covered in four out of five. This is a big spread. I am still taking it. Even without their dynamic rookie De’Von Achane, Miami is just too much for Carolina. Bryce Young vs. Vic Fangio is another concern for me. Carolina is in for a tough day, and I am putting it all on Miami.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Seahawks Moneyline: +136
Bengals Moneyline: -150
My Pick: Bengals -2.5
The Seahawks have not played since that beating they put on the Giants. Cincinnati used Arizona for a get-right game. Joe Burrow looks back, and they are the favorites at home. I do think that Seattle keeps this one close, and their pass rush will be tough for Cincinnati. I am taking the over in this one and the Beals to cover. Joey B and the boys are back!
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) @ Houston Texans
Saints Moneyline: -120
Texans Moneyline: +100
My Pick: Saints -1.5
Houston has exceeded expectations all year, and they came back down to earth last week. It was a close game, and they will keep this one competitive. The Saints have gone under in 14 of their last 15. Their defense has held defenses under 20 in 12 of their last 13 games. New Orleans is a tough matchup for C.J. Stroud, and Tank Dell is expected to miss this one. Give me the under and the Saints.
San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Cleveland Browns
49ers Moneyline: -300
Browns Moneyline: +250
My Pick: 49ers -7
The San Francisco 49ers are even better than last year. They are undefeated and rolling. Cleveland is expected to start P.J. Walker, and their team seems to be reeling. I am surprised this isn’t a higher spread. Lock it in while you can. Give me the 49ers to cover by over 9.5. This team is unstoppable until proven otherwise.
Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
Commanders Moneyline: +124
Falcons Moneyline: -141
My Pick: Falcons Moneyline
Washington has been an up-and-down team this year. They took the Philadelphia Eagles to overtime but barely beat the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals. Washington got blown out by the Chicago Bears and has a lot of questions to answer. Atlanta has gone under in nine of their last eleven games. I am taking the under in this one and Atlanta to cover. Ridder vs. Howell isn’t Manning vs. Brady, and both teams like to establish the run.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
New England Patriots (+3) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Patriots Moneyline: +140
Raiders Moneyline: -164
My Pick: Raiders -3
Take the under. These teams have only gone over in two of their last ten combined. New England’s offense is a disaster, and their defense isn’t much better. We could see Bailey Zappe in this one. I do think Bill figures out a way to stifle the Raiders offense. His knowledge of Jimmy Garopollo and Josh McDaniels will come into play, but New England is not covering. Raiders -3 is fine with me. Take the moneyline if you want to be safe.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lions Moneyline: -166
Buccaneers Moneyline: +145
My Pick: Lions -3.5
The Lions have covered in 13 of their last 15 games, including going 4-1 this season. Detroit is playing great on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay has been much better than advertised, but they will be without Mike Evans for the first time. Detroit will continue to cover, and the Buccaneers will need more than 3.5 to get my money. As of now, 67% of betters agree and are taking Lions -3.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ New York Jets
Eagles Moneyline: -300
Jets Moneyline: +250
My Pick: Eagles -7
The Philadelphia Eagles have seen a bit of regression this year, but they are still winning. The New York Jets had a big letdown when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1. They beat the Bills somehow, and it’s been a tough road until last week. They beat the Denver Broncos, one of the worst teams in football. Philadelphia is a different animal, and that defense can only carry this offense so far. Philly is too good and should have a cakewalk on Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams
Cardinals Moneyline: +260
Rams Moneyline: -315
My Pick: Rams Moneyline
Los Angeles has owned Arizona for the last few seasons. The Rams are 10-2-1 against the spread vs. the Cardinals in their last 13 showdowns. Arizona has been a surprise this year, but they looked more as expected last week. The Cardinals are +11.5 against the spread this season. I am still taking the Rams in this one. Kupp is back, and this offense is rolling. They had a tough matchup last week. They get right like the Bengals did against Arizona.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
New York Giants (+14) @ Buffalo Bills
Giants Moneyline: +600
Bills Moneyline: -900
My Pick: Buffalo -14
The New York Giants have not covered once this season, 0-5. Daniel Jones is questionable with a neck injury, and their entire team comes in questionable. Barkley could be back this week against a banged-up Buffalo defense. But the Buffalo offense is just too much. Even at 14 points, 61% of bets are going for Buffalo. The total is 44.5, and 72% of betters are putting their money on the over. Give me Buffalo -14, sorry Giants.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Cowboys Moneyline: -130
Chargers Moneyline: +115
My Pick: Chargers +2.5
The Cowboys have come crashing down to earth in the last few weeks. In the last three weeks, they have lost to the Cardinals and been embarrassed by the 49ers. Only 39% of betters are taking Dallas to cover right now, and 53% are taking the Cowboys’ moneyline. Los Angeles is coming off of the bye week, and Austin Ekeler is expected to play. Dallas’ offensive line is still banged up, and I am taking the Chargers to upset the Cowboys.
