Here is our Week 10 NFL betting preview. Included are some betting trends for each team, updated odds, and my favorite NFL bets for week 10. We will look at where the public is putting their money, too. This NFL season has been riddled with major injuries and backup quarterback play. Unders are hitting 61% in 2023! As we look ahead to Week 10, there is a lot of that to consider. After nine weeks, we have a lot of data to help us make smarter bets.
Go here for daily free NFL picks!
Week 10 NFL Picks: Betting Trends, Odds, and Upset Predictions
We have four teams on bye this week, and they are four good ones. The Philadelphia Eagles have been a safe bet at 8-1 and 5-2-2 against the spread. Kansas City is off as well, and the Chiefs are 6-3 against the spread as well as 7-2 on the season. The Detroit Lions are 6-2 straight up and against the spread. Los Angeles is just 3-6 on the season, but the Rams are 4-4-1 against the spread. Now, let’s look at who is playing. Here are my favorite bets for Week 10.
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Panthers Moneyline: +150
Bears Moneyline: -166
My Pick: Chicago Bears Moneyline
Carolina has only covered the spread once this season, which is the lowest in the league at 14.3%. Justin Fields is not expected to play. We will see if this affects the market, but it won’t come as a big surprise. These are not good teams, currently 2nd and 3rd in NFL Draft Order. Carolina owns both picks, so it’s a lose-lose situation for those looking ahead to the NFL Draft. Chicago has been the better team, even with Tyson Bagent.
When the Chicago Bears defeat the Panthers, it will be quite the talk. The kid from Sheperd College is beating the #1 pick and former Heisman winner from Alabama. I am putting my money on it. Give me the under this one, and give me Chicago. Carolina has only covered the spread once, but this is the Chicago Bears. I am playing it safe with the moneyline in this one. The betters agree, 76% on Chicago moneyline and 87% on the total going under 38.5.
Sunday at 9:30 AM EST
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) @ New England Patriots
Colts Moneyline: -120
Patriots Moneyline:+104
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts -1.5
Indianapolis and New England travel overseas for another game in Europe. These games have some wacky variables and typically end in unders. The Colts have been playing well, even with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. Betting against New England is a safe bet these days. They are 2-7 against the spread. New England is also 2-7 on the year. I will take the under in this one 43.5, just like 94% of betters.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
49ers Moneyline: -160
Jaguars Moneyline: +142
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Jacksonville has covered in five straight games and has won five in a row outright. San Francisco is on a losing streak, and we still don’t know the status of a few key starters. Both teams are coming off of the bye week, and Jacksonville is the hotter team. They are also the healthier team. I will take the three points and put it on the Jaguars. The public is still on San Francisco, with 56% of bets on the 49ers minus the three points.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Titans Moneyline: +100
Buccaneers Moneyline: -110
My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Will Levis versus Baker Mayfield is a more exciting game than we thought it would be. As of now, 56% of betters are taking Tampa Bay. NFL Betters are liking the line of 38.5, and 76% are putting their money on the over. These teams have gone under 80% of the time in their last 12 games. But Will Levis has brought a spark to Tennessee, and I am buying it. Give me the Buccaneers to win the game, but give me the over in this one.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Browns Moneyline: +220
Ravens Moneyline: -245
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens Moneyline
This is a huge game for the AFC North, but Baltimore comes in as a heavy favorite. The public is split, 50/50 even on the moneyline and 52% Cleveland plus six points. They like the game to go under the 38-point total with two good defenses. There is one good offense and one bad offense in this one. I am taking Baltimore to take this one straight up. I will agree with the betters, taking 89% of their money and putting it on the total to go under.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Texans Moneline: +260
Bengals Moneyline: -285
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline
The public is backing the Bengals with 72% of their money. I would watch the health of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase in this one. This could really affect the total and all Bengals’ bets. I do think Burrow and the boys are back, but I am taking the moneyline to play it safe. The public is going over 47, 58% of the time. I love the Stroud versus Burrow matchup and hope we see fireworks. But I am taking the under with the injured Bengals.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
Saints Moneyline: -135
Vikings Moneyline: +125
My Pick: New Orleans Saints Moneyline
The under looks good in this one. The teams combined for 14-2 in this one. Joshua Dobbs gets a tough assignment against New Orleans. Both teams are 5-4 and fighting for their playoff lives. Justin Jefferson is not supposed to suit up in this one. I am taking the Saints moneyline. Playing it safe, the Saints are 2-6-1 against the spread this season.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Packers Moneyline: +150
Steelers Moneyline: -166
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Pittsburgh keeps finding ways to win, and Green Bay keeps finding ways to lose. The Steelers are both 5-3 on the season and against the spread. Green Bay is 3-5 on the season and 4-4 against the spread. Pittsburgh has been winning despite Kenny Pickett. Both quarterbacks have not played well, and the total being set at 38.5 is new for this matchup. The public has spoken. 59% are taking the under, and 82% are betting on Pittsburgh, including me.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Falcons Moneyline: -120
Cardinals Moneyline: +105
My Pick: Arizona Cardinals +1.5
Atlanta has made a change at quarterback, and Arizona welcomes back Kyler Murray. This is Kyler’s first game back since having knee surgery, and the reports are that he won’t be limited. James Conner could also return in this one, which would be an even bigger boost to this offense. Atlanta and Arthur Smith will do everything they can to hit the under. Right now, 62% of bets are taking the under, and 65% are taking Arizona.
Detroit Lions (-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lions Moneyline: -150
Chargers Moneyline: +136
My Pick: Detroit Lions -3
The Detroit Lions are expected to get David Montgomery back, and he has been a big part of their offense. This game is set at 48.5. The public is betting the over 72% of the time. The trends say to take the under. The Lions are scoring over 8 points less on the road. Los Angeles is 26th in second-half scoring. I am taking the under, and I am taking the more well-coached team in this one. Detroit, minus the three points, and the under for me.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Commanders Moneyline: +225
Seahawks Moneyline: -267
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks Moneyline
Washington is 4-0 on the road against the spread, but the public is putting it on Seattle 92% of the time. At the trade deadline, Seattle was buying, and Washington was selling. I agree with Seattle, but I am playing it safe going straight up. Seattle has done very little to earn my confidence. The total is set at 45.5, and 79% of bets are going over. I am also putting my money on the over. Washington’s high-volume passing has helped push the overs.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-16.5)
Giants Moneyline: +900
Cowboys Moneyline: -1200
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys -16.5
This is the biggest spread of the year, and maybe it should be higher. New York just got blown out by the Las Vegas Raiders, and we all saw the carnage on opening night. No need to dive into the data. Dallas wins this one easily. This could be a shutout. I am taking Dallas, minus the points, and I am taking the under. The total is currently 38.5. 97% of bets are taking the under, and 91% are taking Dallas -16.5.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
New York Jets (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Jets Moneyline: -106
Raiders Moneyline: +100
My Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +1
Addition by subtraction. The Las Vegas Raiders looked much better without Josh McDaniels. It helped that they played the New York Giants, led by Tommy DeVito. This week, they get the Zach Wilson-led Jets, and somehow, New York is the favorite. I am taking Aidan Farva O’Connell and the fighting Antonio Pierces’ in this one. Raiders +1, and I am taking the under. Even at 36.5, 96% of betters agree to go under in this one.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Broncos Moneyline: +320
Bills Moneyline: -365
My Pick: Buffalo Bills Moneyline
Buffalo and Denver looked like a fun matchup when they put the schedule together, maybe? Denver is one of the worst teams in the league again, and they are good to bet against. They are 2-5-1 against the spread and 3-5 on the season. Buffalo has been shaky this year. They are 3-6 against the spread as well. The Bills are barely .500 at 5-4 straight up. Buffalo is trending up, and Denver continues to trend down. Give me Buffalo straight up in this one.
