Week 11 of the NFL season is already here! There are only a few more weeks to do some regular season NFL betting. I hope you have enjoyed the content this season. We are up on the year and hope to finish strong this season. It always helps to look at trends and do your research. In this article, I will put some trends in for each game. We use Hall of Fame Bets and encourage everyone to make smarter bets today. Let’s look at some trends and make some bets. Here are my NFL picks for Week 11!
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NFL Picks Week 11: Favorite Upsets, Updated Lines, & NFL Betting Trends
Reminder: Bye Weeks (Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, & New Orleans Saints)
NFL Betting Trends:
Favorites: 98-52 (65.3%
Underdog: 52-98 (34.7%)
Home Teams: 83-67 (55.3%)
Away Teams: 67-83 (44.7%)
Home Favorites: 60-29 (67.4)
Away Favorites: 38-23 (62.3%)
Home Underdogs: 22-38 (37.7%)
Away Underdogs: 29-60 (32.9%)
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Bengals Moneyline: +158
Ravens Moneyline: -175
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens Moneyline
The Bengals have dealt with injuries all season. They will be without Tee Higgins, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Baltimore is hitting on all cylinders. They might be the hottest team in football, and they come into this game healthy. As underdogs, the Bengals are 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games.
They also have covered in 10 of their last 11 when underdogs by 3.5 or more. 71% of betters are taking the Ravens moneyline, me included. This game is set up for some fireworks. 63% of betters are taking over 46 points for the total.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Titans Moneyline: +260
Jaguars Moneyline: -300
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline
Tennessee has gone under in every road game and averages only 11.2 points when away from home. The under has moved from 38.5 to 40, and 67% of public betters, including me, are taking it. The Jags are heavy favorites. 75% of the money is going towards their moneyline right now. A lot of faith in them covering. 77% of betters are giving Tennessee the seven points. Sunshine and the Jags bounce back. Give me the Jaguars, who are 6-3 ATS!
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Green Bay Packers
Chargers Moneyline: -165
Packers Moneyline: +144
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline
The Chargers are a first-half team. You can take them over in the 1st quarter or half. The Chargers to score first is also -128. Los Angeles is getting 86% of public bets straight up and 74% to cover. Los Angeles is 3-5-1 on the year against the spread, and Green Bay is 4-5. I am playing it safe and just taking the moneyline in this one. I am also taking the over at 43.5. Right now, 54% of betters are also taking the over in this one.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-9.5)
Giants Moneyline: +350
Commanders Moneyline: -400
My Pick: Washington Commanders -9.5
This has been the season from hell for the New York Giants. If Tommy DeVito starts again, put everything on Washington. This is a team that has just given up, and you can see it. Washington has been up and down this season, but they should win this one easily. Now, will they cover? Unless Tyrod Taylor suits up, Yes. I am taking the under in this one at 36.5, and so are 73% of betters.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-13)
Raiders Moneyline: +600
Dolphins Moneyline: -800
My Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +13
Right now, 94% are taking the Dolphins moneyline, and 93% are taking Miami -13. The Raiders are playing inspired under Antonio Pierce. Miami has cooled off, and I have the Raiders covering for the third week in a row. The total in this one is set at 46.5, and I am taking the over along with 68% of the public. Both teams have been going over, and I have that trend continuing.
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans (-5.5)
Cardinals Moneline: +198
Texans Moneyline: -225
My Pick: Houston Texans Moneyline
Houston is one of the hottest teams in football, and they are continuing to ruin that first-round pick they gave Arizona. They will continue to do it this week. Kyler Murray’s return helped them cover and helped them beat Atlanta last week. Right now, 62% of betters are taking Houston straight up. But only 29% are taking them to cover at 5.5. Houston’s last three wins were by an average of 3 points. Only one of them was over 6 points.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Bears Moneyline: +340
Lions Moneyline: -400
My Pick: Detroit Lions -7.5
Chicago is expected to get Justin Fields back, but that is not enough for the public. Right now, 72% of the public is betting on Detroit to cover at -7.5. This game is in Detroit, so the weather won’t be an issue. I am taking the over at 47.5. The public is split, and only 51% are taking the over in this one. I think that number goes up if they announce Fields is playing. Lock it in now and lock in the Lions at -7.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Cleveland Browns
Steelers Moneyline: +100
Browns Moneyline: -110
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1
This might be the lowest under of the year; 32.5 is the total, and 82% of betters are taking it! Cleveland has gone under in all but one of their last nine games. They also just announced Deshaun Watson is out for the season, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start. Pittsburgh is an ugly 6-3 team, but they find ways to win. Give me Pittsburgh -1, and I am taking the under. This will not be the most exciting game on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Cowboys Moneyline: -550
Panthers Moneyline: +430
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys -10.5
The Carolina Panthers are 1-6-2 against the spread, and Dallas is 6-3 against the spread. Dallas is going to take it down again. The Cowboys are getting 82% of moneyline bets and 79% of bets to cover. As for the total at 42.5, 76% of bets are taking the over. Dallas is heating up, and they typically don’t let you down until January. Give me Dallas -10.5 and the over. Book it!
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-12)
Buccaneers Moneyline: +530
49ers Moneyline: -575
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
The 49ers and Brock Purdy reminded everyone last week how good they are. Getting Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back will do that. Baker Mayfield comes in questionable with a knee injury. This is something to monitor. Right now, the line is -12, and 86% are taking it. The public is taking the 49ers straight up 99% of the time, and 75% are taking the over at 41.5. I am taking the 49ers moneyline and taking the over in this one.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks (-1) @ Los Angeles Rams
Seahawks Moneyline: -115
Rams Moneyline: +100
My Pick: LA Rams Moneyline
Los Angeles has covered the spread in six of their last six against Seattle. They are getting Matthew Stafford back, and the Rams blew out Seattle in Week 1. Seattle and Geno Smith have regressed in 2023. Right now, 54% of bets are taking Los Angeles to cover and 64% straight up. The public is expecting fireworks. The total is 46.5, and 57% are putting their money on the over. Give me LA and the over in this one. This should be a fun one!
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-7)
Jets Moneyline:+260
Bills Moneyline: -300
My Pick: Buffalo Bills -7
Buffalo had an embarrassing loss on prime time, where they did everything they could to lose the game. Ken Dorsey ended up fired, and Stefon Diggs went to social media. Expect a big bounce-back game in this one at home for Buffalo. I am taking the under. Zach Wilson is playing in this one, and 92% of betters agree. Only 55% are taking the Buffalo Moneyline, and 42% to cover. I am going against the grain for this one, Let’s Go Buffalo!
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Vikings Moneyline: +115
Broncos Moneyline: -134
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings +2.5
There might not be an easier team to cheer for than the Minnesota Vikings. Kirk Cousins goes down, and they replace him with another all-around great dude in Joshua Dobbs. He has been playing out of his mind and is still learning the playbook. Denver did beat Buffalo, but let’s be honest: Buffalo lost that game. Minnesota is hot, and I don’t understand why they are dogs here. Minnesota +2.5, and the over for me, 61% of betters agree with Minnesota. The total is set at 42.5, and 77% of bets are taking the under.
Monday at 8:20 PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Eagles Moneyline: +124
Chiefs Moneyline: -142
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Monday night got a good one with a Super Bowl rematch. Both teams are coming in healthy and off of their bye weeks. This should be a great game and a nice measuring stick for both teams. Kansas City has played better on defense this year but worse on offense. They have gone under the total in the second half of every game.
The total is set at 45.5, and 86% of bets are taking the under. Right now, 55% of bets are taking the Eagles straight up, and 58.5% for Philadelphia to cover. Andy Reid is 27-4 in his career after the bye. I am going against the public, and I am taking the Chiefs to cover in this one. I am also taking the over. Philadelphia’s defense isn’t as good this year.
