Quality over quantity is the name of the game for Championship Weekend. We are getting blessed with 10 College Football Conference Championship games on Friday and Saturday. Here are the 10 best College Football Week 14 best bets and Conference Championship picks in chronological order. Are you looking for more analysis and entertainment on these great games this weekend? You should listen to the Sports Gambling Podcast Network’s “The College Football Experience” podcast.
College Football Week 14 Best Bets: Picks For Every Conference Championship Game
Conference USA Championship: New Mexico State at No. 24 Liberty (-11, O/U 56.5)
Date: Friday, Dec. 1
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Va.
TV: CBS Sports Network
Jerry Kill is doing an outstanding job as head coach of New Mexico State. This has been one of the best seasons for the Aggies in decades. Kill’s name should be nominated for Coach of the Year for the amount of upsets he’s pulled off. On paper, this is not the greatest matchup for NMSU once again. But I’ve never been one to doubt Diego Pavia and the Aggies, so I found a different way to attack this game.
New Mexico State’s run defense is brutal. According to advanced analytics the Aggies rank 100th in opponent success rate, 117th in opponent opportunity rate, 131st in power success rate, 102nd in stuff rate. I couldn’t tell you what all of that means by myself. However, I can tell you that Liberty Head Coach Jamie Chadwell’s offense relies on the run game.
Going back to Chadwell’s Coastal Carolina days, the Quarterback has always been an active runner. During Week 2, QB Kaidon Salter ran for 43 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts. In the Flames’ last six games, Salter has averaged 93.7 yards on the ground from 12 carries per game. Salter cashed the Over 51.5 in four of those six games.
THE PICK: Kaidon Salter (Liberty) Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
PAC 12 Championship: (-10, O/U 65.5) No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 3 Washington
Date: Friday, Dec. 1
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.
TV: ABC
Personally, I think these two teams aren’t 10 points apart from each other. I would love Washington and the points here if Oregon didn’t leave so many points on the board during the first matchup. Did I say Oregon left points on the board in Game 1? Damn straight, the Ducks failed three times on 4th down and missed the game-tying field goal.
Even without adding Oregon’s mishaps getting in their own way, the final score between Washington and Oregon on October 14th was 36-33. The two teams combined for a nice 69 points on a cold and sleety Seattle afternoon. Now we’re putting these two explosive offenses in a weather-deterring Allegiant Stadium? Plus, both teams won’t need to take any time feeling each other out. They’ve already dueled for 60 minutes. When both offenses step on the field Saturday night, expect points to be scored early and often.
THE PICK: Oregon/Washington Over 65.5
BIG 12 Championship: (-10, O/U 65.5) No. 7 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: ABC
Oklahoma State is another underdog that I want to be cautious about when it comes to fading. The Cowboys have a win against Oklahoma (who beat Texas), but their conference schedule was favorable. OSU caught their two toughest opponents (OU and Kansas State) at home and dodged basically all of the Lone Star State schools: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor.
The reason why I’m singling out the first half is that Oklahoma State has started slow a few times this year. At halftime in their last three games, the Pokes were down 6-24 to BYU, 19-23 to Houston, and 0-24 to UCF. OSU will try to run the ball with their stud RB Ollie Gordon. I think will quickly find out that Texas’ 5th ranked defense in yards per rush (2.9). won’t budge much. When that happens, QB Alan Bowman is going to have to prove that he can beat this Longhorns team. I’ll take my chances in the Longhorns leading by two possessions at halftime.
THE PICK: Texas 1st Half -7.5
MAC Championship: (-7.5, O/U 44) Toledo vs. Miami Ohio
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Mich.
TV: ESPN
Toledo is the most talented MAC football roster this year. However, the Rockets like to play with their food. Head Coach Jason Candle’s team has played down to its competition multiple times this year.
Miami, Ohio, lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season due to injury. The Red Hawks also operate at the slowest tempo (133rd) in the nation. Their defense ranks 15th in SP+, and their special teams are the best in the country, according to the analytics. Gabbert got knocked out during the first time Miami, Ohio, played Toledo. Including the 21-17 loss against the Rockets, the Red Hawks game totals are averaging just 31.6 points.
THE PICK: Toledo/Miami OH Under 44
Mountain West Championship: (-2.5, O/U 58.5) Boise State at UNLV
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.
TV: FOX
This was one of the tougher Conference Championship picks I made and, therefore, one of my least confident.
This game is a tough handicap because both teams took unconventional ways to get to their respective College Football Championship games. UNLV pretty much came out of nowhere this season under first-year Head Coach Barry Odom. The Rebels 9-3 with a non-conference loss to Michigan and by dropping their final regular season game to San Jose State. Boise State fired their head coach Andy Avalos, were left for the Wolves but then rebounded with wins over Utah State and Air Force. To say we can’t trust either team right now would be an understatement.
So I turn to the most trusted asset in this game, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty. The 5’9 Sophomore was the 2nd leading receiver and the leading rusher, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Jeanty is facing the nation’s 58th-best defense in rushing yards per carry (4.1). In his 10 games this season, Jeanty scampered for over 76.5 rushing yards seven times. I like his chances to do it once again as the game will be played indoors and on turf. Jeanty’s speed will play up.
THE PICK: Ashton Jeanty (Boise St) Over 76.5 Rushing Yards
SEC Championship: (-5.5, O/U 54.5) Georgia vs. Alabama
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA.
TV: CBS
I’m not playing this prop against Carson Beck because I think he is a bad quarterback. It’s strictly player action because of the game script I think this game will have. Both head coaches in this game (Kirby Smart and Nick Saban) are defensive masterminds. I have a feeling that both teams will want to play physically and try to establish the run. If Georgia leads for the majority of this game, like I think they will, the Bulldogs will elect to pound the rock rather than air it out and possibly pause the game clock.
The front half of Georgia’s schedule was relatively weak. Beginning in Week 9 against their rival Florida, Beck has only attempted more than 31.5 passes once, and it was 32 against Missouri. The Bulldogs’ five most recent games include two rivalries and three other ranked teams. In their last five games, Beck has averaged just 27 pass attempts per game.
THE PICK: Carson Beck (Georgia) Under 31.5 Pass Attempts
AAC Championship: (-3.5, O/U 46.5) No. 23 Tulane vs. SMU
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA.
TV: ABC
First off, unfortunately, SMU QB Preston Stone is missing this game due to an injury. Kevin Jennings is the replacement for the Mustangs and he has 26 career pass attempts. SMU travels to Tulane’s building to play against the Green Wave, where Tulane defeated the Mustangs last year.
Because of the injury at Quarterback for the Pony Express, you would think they would just adopt a run-heavy attack. I wish SMU good luck against the nation’s 7th best run defense. The Green Wave allows just 3 yards per carry (7th) and only 88.2 rushing yards per game (7th).
Tulane is my favorite side of this College Football Week 14 Best Bets piece.
THE PICK: Tulane -3.5
Sun Belt Championship: (-5.5, O/U 52.5) Troy vs. Appalachian State
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Ala.
TV: ESPN
Last year, Troy lost to Appalachian State on the final play via desperation Hail Mary.
6th-year QB Gunnar Watson and 1,300-yard rusher Kimani Vidal, along with a very stout defense, have their scopes set on revenge this year. The offense has the experience, and the defense is 10th in the nation, allowing just 4.6 yards per play. The Trojans’ only two losses this season came in Week 2 and 3 to Kansas State and a two-point loss to James Madison. Troy wins the Sun Belt Championship on home soil, and they cover the number.
THE PICK: Troy -5.5
ACC Championship: (-1.5, O/U 47.5) No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 14 Louisville
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
TV: ABC
This line opened at Louisville +5.5, and it continues to shorten. A large reason for that is because Florida State backup QB Tate Rodemaker looked brutal against one of the worst Power 5 defenses (Florida) last weekend. Rodemaker completed just 12 of his 25 passes for 134 yards against the Gators’ 126th-ranked pass defense (8.5 yards per completion).
He did that despite having three NFL talent receivers in Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, and Jaheim Bell. That might work against North Alabama, but it just doesn’t cut it in college football conference championship games.
With all that said, Florida State still has an elite defense. The Seminoles also have the offensive playmakers to possibly make up for Rodemaker behind center. With the value swallowed up on the Cardinals’ side and moneyline, the Under 47.5 is the next best move.
THE PICK: Florida St/Louisville Under 47.5
Big Ten Championship: (-22, O/U 34.5) No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 16 Iowa
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind.
TV: FOX
Record-low totals haven’t been very rare for Iowa games this season. The Hawkeyes have broken their own record of “lowest total for a college football game” three times this season. Now, the record-low total for college football championship games has been broken by this 34.5-point line.
There are a couple of reasons why I believe Michigan is putting up 29 or more points Saturday night. First, the game is being played indoors on Astroturf. It automatically favors the faster, more athletic offenses. Second, the Wolverines beat down the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship two seasons ago with largely the same offense. Third, in Iowa’s lone test against a Big East top 3 team Penn State dropped 31 on them (and the under still hit because Iowa didn’t score).
THE PICK: Michigan Team Total Over 28.5
The College Football Experience
For more analysis and entertainment on these games, make sure you turn into The College Football Experience. Colby Dant, PattyC, and NC Nick talk about each FBS game every week. Once the regular season wraps up, the content won’t. The trio will be talking transfer portal, coaching carousel, and Bowl Game predictions over the next month.
