“The Lady in Black”, “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” Darlington lives up to its nicknames as one of the hardest tracks on the circuit to navigate. Before we get into the Goodyear 400 Underdog NASCAR fantasy picks, let’s take a look at this tricky track.
The 1.366-mile track gets its egg-shaped size from the minnow pond they had to build around in turns one and two. Two different-sized corners make it tricky for the drivers and team to find the right balance. Getting the car just right and avoiding the Darlington Stripe, or at least not letting the stripe take you out, will be the name of the game this weekend.
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NASCAR Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway Underdog Fantasy Picks
Chandler Smith (Xfinity Series) Better Than 6.5
I have a bonus Xfinity Series play for you this week. One of the best parts of Underdog Fantasy is that you can make fantasy predictions across sports or even Series, including Trucks, Xfinity, Cup, and F1.
Chandler Smith has easily been the best series regular in Xfinity this season. He currently leads the point standings and has two victories and six top-five finishes in 10 races. His last three races haven’t been the results they’ve wanted, but there’s been a few asterisks.
At Texas, he led 26 laps before getting caught up in a wreck with teammate Sheldon Creed. Despite damage, he still managed a 15th-place finish. Talladega is a superspeedway, and as we should all know those can’t be measured for how your season is going. At Dover, a pedestrian seventh-place finish raises a few questions, but not enough for Smith to have fallen this far. You get the fastest car in the series, along with its best regular driver. Better Than 6.5 is a no-brainer.
Chris Buescher Better Than 13.5
It’s safe to say that Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing and Chris Buescher figured something out at Kansas Speedway. After Ford’s continuing lack of speed, Buescher found some last week. After battling near the front all day long, Buescher suffered the closest loss in NASCAR history by losing to Kyle Larson by .001 seconds.
RFK and Buescher should be able to turn around and bring that speed with them to Darlington, whose tire wear and intermediate size show some comparisons to Kansas. Buescher finished top-10 in both races at Darlington in 2023. He just needs a top-13 this week to hit this one.
Chase Elliott Better Than 9.5
This number baffles me a little bit. Based on his recent performances, Elliott is being slept on by our friends at Underdog this week. If you take Talladega out of the equation because it’s a Superspeedway, Elliott is riding a five-race streak of top-five finishes. Elliott is one of the most streaky drivers in the garage, and his current form has him well better than 9.5.
Elliott also tends to be better in the Darlington spring race, which is notable because it’s 100 miles shorter than the fall’s Southern 500. In last year’s fall race, he scored an eighth (better than 9.5!), while the spring was a strong third-place run. In the spring of 2022, Elliott finished fifth, while he finished seventh in the spring of 2021.
In the first of a spring double header in 2020, Elliott chalked up an 11th-place run. Hot streak, plus good in the spring, is the right combination for an Elliott Better Than this week.
Martin Truex Jr Better Than 6.5
Surprisingly, Martin Truex Jr. hasn’t finished better than 6.5 in the four NextGen races. That’s not going to stop us this week from playing Truex in any form of NASCAR fantasy. Truex has been an absolute beast here; he’s just lacking the results. That should change this week.
Martin Truex Jr. at Darlington …
2023 #2 = 18th. Don’t read into it. #19 got into the wall during Practice/Qualifying and opted not to repair it thinking things were fine. They weren’t 😱. Also made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel while running in 15th on lap 155.… pic.twitter.com/6kI7u73FZc
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) May 7, 2024
My friends at Ifantasyrace.com put it best in the post above, but here’s a summary. In the fall they started the race with damage and had a loose tire. In the spring of ‘23 won stage one and wrecked, battling for the lead in stage two. He led 145 laps that day.
Water pump issue in the fall of ‘22 while leading late in the race. In the spring of ‘22, he was around all day before a late wreck while in fourth place. He dominated the spring of 2021 race leading 248 laps and sweeping the stages and race win, that’s the Truex I expect to see this weekend.
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