Don’t look now, but we are a little over two months until pre-season action. We are also not far from training camps opening up in July. Win totals have been out for quite some time now, and there are several numbers I have my eye on. As always, you want to shop around for the best number and always keep your eyes and ears open for new information. Below are my NFL win total preview, analysis, and best bets!
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NFL Win Total Preview, Analysis & Best Bets
Cincinatti Bengals OVER 10.5 (-120)
Last year was a roller coaster for the Bengals. Nine games into the season, they lost their franchise quarterback but still finished with a winning record. Now that Burrow is back, I think this team is poised for a big bounce-back year. For starters, they will be playing a last-place schedule, which is heavily in their favor, knowing they were not fully healthy.
Early reports have been good on Burrow and how he looks coming off that injury. Honestly, I am not worried about him; he is going to have a monster year. In his nine games, he was under 200 passing yards in four of them. Despite the early offensive struggles, they were 4-2 in his last six starts.
Since his rookie year, the biggest elephant in the room has been the offensive line. We have seen improvements, but depth was still a bit of an issue. They drafted one of the bigger upside offensive linemen in Amarius Mims, which will definitely help with that. With the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens having a ferocious pass rush, Cinci is going to need the offensive line to play at a top-ten level, which I think is feasible.
Defensively, I have my biggest questions, despite loving what Lou Anarumo does in big games. Their metrics were down last year, but I can make an argument it was due to their offense not being as effective. This would keep their defense on the field more and make them more prone to giving up yards and points. With a healthy Burrow, the defense can be more effective, which is what I expect this upcoming year.
New York Giants UNDER 6.5 (-130)
As a New York Giants fan, it hurts me to even write this. The worst thing to happen to the Giants was that playoff appearance in Brian Daboll’s first season. That installed belief that maybe they are just a few pieces away from competing, which is far from the truth. Despite drafting what some believe is the best receiver in the class, the offensive unit is atrocious. Last year, they averaged just over 15 points per game and were bottom three in EPA per play and success rate.
Their best weapon was a running back, who now plays for a division rival. Darren Waller is contemplating retirement, meaning they most likely only have one weapon who had over 550 yards receiving. The skill position talent is near the bottom of the NFL, and they did not do much to bolster it in the off-season.
Last year, they finished 6-11, and that was a struggle. Of those six wins, only two teams finished with a winning record. Historically they do not perform well against the NFC East’s elite. They have lost 13 of the last 14 meetings to the Cowboys, including six straight. In their last 16 meetings against the Eagles, they have only won three times.
After only being favored once last year, that number will not be much higher this year. Outside of the Commanders, there is no definitive spot where they will be favored again. Not to mention, their winnable games are mostly on the road. I love the coaching staff, but the roster is arguably one of the worst in the NFL. Quarterback is still an issue along with everything else mentioned, but we expect seven wins? Not me.
Minnesota Vikings UNDER 6.5 (-125)
Vikings are in somewhat of a rebuild and although they have an elite head coach, the roster is far from elite. There is some uncertainty at quarterback, but one would assume they will start Darnold and lean on JJ McCarthy later in the year. They will be playing an average strength of schedule BUT this is one of the tougher divisions in the NFC. Lions and Packers are the class of the conference, and the Bears, on paper, are several steps ahead of the Vikings.
After Kirk Cousin’s injury, the Vikings lost six of their final nine games. In the division, which was worse last year, they went 2-4. The constant in those two wins was Kirk being at quarterback. If you add that up, they lost four straight division games by an average of 10 points. It will not be any easier this year with a tougher division and a Viking team with a less proven Quarterback.
I have them being favored in less than six games, which gives us some extreme value on this under. Their biggest advantage is their talent at the skill position. However, do we trust the quarterback to get them the ball? I don’t.
Defensively, they allowed the highest completion percentage and the seventh-highest Quarterback rating of any defense. That does not bode well in a division with stellar quarterback play. The ceiling, if all things go right, should be five, and that is if we get the absolute best of Darnold and/or JJ.
