This Saturday brings us our first of two UFC pay-per-views for the month of June, with this week’s UFC 302 going down in the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. It’s not the strongest of fight cards, but it’s got the UFC Lightweight Championship on the line in the main event, with a fan favorite going for the gold. Here are my UFC 302 predictions and best bets.
Go here for more UFC picks!
UFC 302 Predictions & Best Bets
Islam Makhachev (-600) vs. Dustin Poirier
Unfortunately for his fans, that aforementioned fan favorite, Dustin Poirer, doesn’t have any serious path to victory in Saturday’s main event against champion Islam Makhachev. Hence, the -600 line on the champ.
While Poirier is a better striker, Makhachev is also dangerous – and improving – in that realm. But, more than likely, this fight is going to take place on the ground, with the champ on top of Poirier. If you want a better line, my MMA Gambling Podcast cohost likes this fight to go over 2.5 rounds (+130).
Paulo Costa (+210) vs. Sean Strickland
I’ve got a dog for you in the middleweight co-main event, however. Former champ Sean Strickland is up against the muscly power-punching Paulo Costa, and I like Costa at +210.
This is a five-round fight, and Costa’s gas tank is surprisingly pretty solid for a bricked-up dude. But, most importantly, here, he is going to be landing the more significant strikes in this fight. Strickland dines off of pitter-pat shots and jabs, while Costa has real power. Whether he knocks him out or not, I like Costa as a dog.
Randy Brown (-180) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
A couple of surging welterweights kick off the main card portion of Saturday’s proceedings. Randy Brown has won two straight fights and six of seven, while Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is 2-0-1 over his last three.
I’m going with the much bigger (four inches taller, five inches of reach), younger (by four years), ‘Rude Boy’ Randy Brown to prevail here. He’s a very dangerous, well-rounded fighter who seems to still be underrated.
Jailton Almeida (-295) vs. Alexandr Romanov
Heavyweight prospect Jailton Almeida is getting a nice bounce-back fight on Saturday after getting knocked out by Curtis Blaydes in his last fight, his first UFC loss. Alexandr Romanov did look like a promising prospect himself at one time, but those days have passed.
Romanov relies on grappling to win fights, which just happens to be something that Almeida is better than him at. Almeida is also the much better striker if he chooses to keep this fight on his feet.
Phil Rowe (+136) vs. Jake Matthews
Time for an underdog. I really like the number we’re getting on ‘The Fresh Prince’ Phil Rowe in his welterweight fight against Jake Matthews. Rowe has finished all 10 of pro mixed martial arts wins inside the distance (six knockouts, four submissions).
He’s also HUGE for a welterweight – he’s four inches taller than Matthews and has seven inches of reach over him to work his dangerous striking game with (all three of his UFC wins have come via TKO).
If you’d like even more information on UFC 302, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping five episodes weekly to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
