2024 U.S. Open Picks

Looking to add a few bets for the 2024 PGA Championship? Look no further! Here are the top picks to make for the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.

For a full course preview of the types of golfers to pick at the 2024 U.S. Open, click here.

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2024 U.S. Open Picks

Outright Bets

Viktor Hovland 20/1

In 2014, Martin Kaymer was an elite ball striker who struggled around the green. While he didn’t qualify for PGA Tour stats ahead of the 2014 U.S. Open because of a lack of starts, Kaymer would have ranked 163rd in Strokes Gained Around the Green and was losing about 0.25 shots per round to the field.

Players who miss the green at Pinehurst No. 2 are in a world of hurt trying to chip off of tight bermuda lies or from inconsistent waste areas onto dome-shaped greens with fine margins between a great shot and a poor one. Bad scramblers should be in for a world of hurt there, right?

But when it was all said and done, Martin Kaymer led the field that week in scrambling. He got up and down from off the green 75% of the time, well above the field average of 50%.

So how did he do it? Because Pinehurst No. 2 allows for players to putt from off the green or keep the ball on the ground. Oftentimes, that’s even the preferred strategy. And if you miss it in the right spots, getting up and down isn’t as bad as it would be if you miss in the wrong spot and can write down bogey on the scorecard right after your approach shot. And for those who aren’t comfortable chipping from tight lies, having this option is a much-needed relief.

The point is that while fantastic short-game prowess isn’t a negative at Pinehurst No. 2, it’s not necessarily the huge edge it would be at other venues. Besides, how players accumulate strokes gained around the green on typical PGA Tour setups doesn’t pale in comparison with the types of shots players will have to hit this week.

How does chipping out of thick ryegrass rough translate to having to use 3 Wood to run the ball back up the slope and onto a slick green where the risk of having to do that again from the other side is high?

Which brings me to Viktor Hovland. Hovland notoriously struggles around the green in his career. But he’s a fantastic ball striker. And now that he’s reunited with his coach, his ball-striking is peaking ahead of the 2024 U.S. Open.

That was a central theme for most of the players inside the Top 10 at the 2014 U.S. Open, as their iron play was sharp in the events leading up to the tournament. There is a fine line between a great approach shot and a poor one. Hovland’s ball-striking is more than equipped to handle this fine line.

Hovland is one of the few players in recent memory who have stared down Scottie Scheffler in a one-on-one situation and come out on top. And he has the ability to separate himself from the field like Kaymer did on a firm and fast Pinehurst No. 2. At 20/1, he’s a great pick to win the 2024 U.S. Open.

Tony Finau 60/1

Finau hasn’t been relevant much in major championships recently. And he’s only been in contention for a handful of wins in 2024. With that said, Finau’s iron play leading up to the 2024 U.S. Open is as good as anyone’s. With that peaking at the right time and the length to handle most U.S. Open venues, he’s in a great spot to emerge from nowhere like Gary Woodland did in 2019.

Finau also has success on similar golf courses that feature tight bermuda lies and greens that have turtleback features. Finau boat raced the field at the 2022 Houston Open at Memorial Park, a golf course with similar greenside features that Pinehurst No. 2 has.

He also has a good track record on the Albany G.C. at the Hero World Challenge. Like Pinehurst, the greens at Albany are domeshaped and feature tight bermuda lies from off of it. It also features wide corridors with sandy waste areas off the fairway, where players face a coin flip on whether they’ll have a clean lie or incur a penalty stroke in the native grasses.

Finau’s best U.S. Open came at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. That was long ago, but it shows that Finau can handle a firm and difficult U.S. Open setup like we’re expecting to see this week at Pinehurst. Finau is a solid longshot pick to win the 2024 U.S. Open.

Other Outright Bets to Consider:

Rory McIlroy 12/1
Brooks Koepka 22/1
Ludvig Aberg 22/1
Hideki Matsuyama 45/1
Max Homa 55/1

Positional Bets

Collin Morikawa Top 10 +160

Collin Morikawa is very close to winning a big-time tournament. He hung around with Scottie Scheffler to the bitter end at last week’s Memorial. He was in the mix at Augusta National in April. And he was in the final group with Xander Schauffele at the 2024 PGA Championship. A breakthrough win is just in his grasp.

And yet, I think he’s going to come up a little short once again. Morikawa has all the ball-striking tools bettors would be targeting ahead of this year’s U.S. Open. And he should get added rollout with his drives with the firm nature of the Pinehurst greens. But recent trends at U.S. Opens suggest that at the end of the day, the power hitters ultimately prevail.

Even Matt Fitzpatrick made great efforts to add speed and power to his game before his U.S. Open win. That’s been the deciding edge at U.S. Opens over the last 5-10 years.

But as a plus money positional bet, Morikawa is more than up to the task to cash that prop. Pick Morikawa as a Top 10 bet at the 2024 U.S. Open.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 +175

Like Morikawa, Matsuyama doesn’t have a ton of horsepower off the tee anymore. Ultimately, that’s probably what will prevent him from capturing the 2024 U.S. Open. But given his current form, his consistent ball-striking, and his pedigree, Matsuyama is a fine pick for a Top 20 bet at +175.

Matsuyama has also become a bit of a U.S. Open ace recently. He has six Top 20 finishes in his 11 U.S. Opens, including a T2 at Erin Hills in 2017 and a 4th at Brookline in 2022. His ability to limit ball-striking mistakes makes him an ideal prototype for enjoying success at U.S. Open setups.

And Pinehurst No. 2 will be no exception. While he might let many of his backers down in the outright market, Matsuyama should still deliver a good performance. He’s a fine pick for a positional prop at the 2024 U.S. Open.