Week 6 of the NFL was all about the unders and the underdogs. This was the week of the dog. Of course, the P.J. Walker-led Browns not only covered but beat the 49ers. The New York Giants were the biggest underdog of the year, and they covered as well. We had more injuries, and now, we have more backup quarterbacks to start this week. It has been a wild season. We will look at some trends to help us decide where to put our money this week. Here are my Week 7 NFL Picks.
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Week 7 NFL Picks: NFL Betting Trends and Predictions
Reminder: Bye Weeks (Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans)
NFL Betting Trends:
Unders are 164-115-2 (61%)
Scoring is down; last week, teams averaged 18.2 points
Best Teams Against the Spread: Miami (5-1), Detroit (5-1), LA Rams (4-1)
Worst Teams Against the Spread: Denver (0-5), Carolina (0-5), and NY Giants (1-4)
Home Teams: 46 – 44
Away Teams: 44 – 46
Picks of the Week:
Survival Pool Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Underdog of the Week: Detroit Lions +3
Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints (-1)
Jaguars Moneyline: +106
Saints Moneyline: -120
My Pick: Jaguars +1
The Saints have gone under in 15 of their last 16 games, including 12 straight and six straight this season. At 39.5, it is really tempting to take the under. Last week, Houston had 20 points at halftime. They finished with 20 points. New Orleans is doing their part, scoring just 18.2 points per game. They scored 34 against the Saints but held them to just 34 points. Their six games have totaled 31, 37, 35, 35, 34, and 33 points this season.
Jacksonville is scoring 23.7 points per game, the 10th highest in the league. Everything says take the under, but I am going with the over here, and I am taking the Jaguars to cover the one point. Jacksonville is heating up and should be confident following two big wins overseas. Teams struggle to run against New Orleans, and the Jaguars might. But they have a stronger passing attack than anyone New Orleans has played so far.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Browns Moneyline: -148
Colts Moneyline: +125
My Pick: Cleveland Browns -2.5
There is a huge wild card in this game, and that is the health of Deshaun Watson. Indianapolis is coming off of a tough loss, and Cleveland is coming off of a big win. Ironically, both teams have trended to the opposite. Cleveland has lost straight up following a win in 13 of their last 15 wins. Indianapolis has bounced back from losses with their two best performances.
If Watson plays, this should be more clear, and we should see the line move. If we see Walker vs. Minshew, things will stay close. The Browns defense was too much for the 49ers last week. I am sticking with them even if Walker plays. Cleveland’s defense is special this year, and they continue to show that they can carry the offense.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) @ New England Patriots
Bills Moneyline: -380
Patriots Moneyline: +350
My Pick: Bills Moneyline
This is the largest spread for New England at home since 2001. The evil empire is at a low point, and the Buffalo Bills aren’t going to show them any sympathy. Buffalo is coming off of a narrow win vs. the lowly New York Giants. Their defense is banged up, and they might not be as dominant as the books have it. I am playing this one safe. Give me the Bills moneyline, and I am taking the under.
Both teams have gone under in 75% of their last 12 games. All but one of those unders went under the current total of 41.5 points. New England’s defense has done enough to keep most games manageable. At the same time, their offense has done enough to make the under betters happy. New England is at the bottom of the NFL in almost every major offensive category.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) @ Chicago Bears
Raiders Moneyline: -155
Bears Moneyline: +136
My Pick: Raiders Moneyline
This could end up with Tyson Bagant vs. Aidan O’Connell. Not exactly, Tua vs. Hurts. These are two of the worst teams in the league on both sides of the ball. The under is currently at 37.5, and I am taking it before it gets even lower. This could close around 35 once Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields are officially out. In the last nine times the Raiders were home favorites, they failed to cover 100% of the time.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Falcons Moneline: +120
Buccaneers Moneyline: -138
My Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
The Atlanta Falcons’ slow pace of play and the underwhelming offense have combined in unders in 75% of their last 20 games. Desmond Ridder has helped them go under in 80% of his starts. Atlanta is 29th in points per game, and Tampa Bay is 25th for a combined 34.5 points per game. The total is currently sitting at 37.5. Give me the Under in this one.
This is going to be strength vs. strength, as the Atlanta Falcons’ strength is rushing, while the Buccaneers are stingy against the run. If Desmond Ridder is forced to pass, things could get ugly for Atlanta. I am taking Baker and the Buccaneers in this one. Tampa Bay has outplayed expectations and will bounce back this week with another divisional win. Chris Godwin said,”The division goes through us.” This has yet to be disproven.
Washington Commanders (-2.5) @ New York Giants
Commanders Moneyline: -142
Giants Moneyline: +122
My Pick: Giants +2.5
New York has gone under in 17 of their last 23 games. The total is under 39.5 points for the league’s worst offense and Washington’s 15th-ranked offense. The teams are combining for roughly 33 points a game. New York is expected to get Daniel Jones back, and they already have Saquan back. Their defense has played well in the last two weeks and has played well despite a tough schedule.
Daniel Jones is 5-1-1 against Washington, and I am taking New York in this one. They are getting to the softer part of their schedule, and they are starting to get healthy. Washington has been up and down all year. Taking the Giants in this one.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Lions Moneyline: +136
Ravens Moneyline: -155
My Pick: Lions +3
This was a surprise. Detroit opens this one as the underdog. Baltimore is at home, but Detroit is a hot team. David Montgomery is questionable, and that is definitely a factor. But Detroit is a team that I am not betting against. We have seen Baltimore struggle in the 4th quarter in back-to-back weeks. Their offense has been struggling since J.K. Dobbins went down, and Detroit is playing well on both sides of the ball.
I will take the under in this one, but I will take Detroit to cover. The Lions are bought in, and they are playing as a team. Baltimore looks disorganized with drops, penalties, and other miscues. Detroit is also 5-1 vs. the spread this year.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Cardinals Moneyline: +310
Seahawks Moneyline: -310
My Pick: Seahawks -7.5
The Cardinals have failed against the spread in 14 of their last 19 games. Seattle is coming off their bye week, and they are getting healthy. I expect this team to continue to lean on their running game with their two young backs. Arizona has looked more like we thought it would the last few weeks. I expect Seattle to handle business pretty easily in this one. They cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Steelers Moneyline: +140
Rams Moneyline: -160
My Pick: Steelers +3
Los Angeles has looked much better than expected this year. They were winning and playing well even without Cooper Kupp. Kupp is back, and the Rams offense looks good. This game could have some quirks, with Sean McVay questionable due to the birth of his son. Kyren Williams has been ruled out, and they will be down to their third-string running back.
Pittsburgh has covered as the underdog in fourteen of their last eighteen. They have been the outright winner in four straight underdog games. The Rams are the favorites for a reason, but the Steelers under Tomlin find a way to play well as underdogs.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Denver Broncos
Packers Moneyline: -115
Broncos Moneyline: +102
My Pick: Packers -1
Green Bay has cooled off since their hot start. Jordan Love has the lowest Quarterback Rating in the league under pressure, and the Packers are struggling. The good news is that they are going to Denver to play Denver. The Broncos are rumored to be for sale, and they can’t rush the passer. Green Bay should be able to handle business here and kick-start this fire sale. Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, and others will be on the clearance rack by Monday.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Chargers Moneyline: +205
Chiefs Moneyline: -245
My Pick: Chiefs Moneyline
Kansas City’s offense has been slow to start, going under in four out of five games. Travis Kelce has been banged up, which has definitely played a part. Los Angeles offers a chance for fireworks with two good offenses. The total is currently set at 48. With a healthy Ekeler and Kelce, I am taking the over. I am going to take the better coaching staff here.
Andy Reid is one of the best coaches of all time, and Brandon Staley is literally holding his team down. Justin Herbert will do enough to make this game close. I will keep taking this one straight up, and I will take the over. This game is full of fantasy football goodness. Kellen Moore and Andy Reid will put up points.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Dolphins Moneyline: +125
Eagles Moneyline: -135
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5
This is the best game on the slate, and Sunday night football got a good one. These are two of the best offenses in football, and I am taking the over. Currently, the total is set at 51, and these teams are averaging a combined 63 points a game. These teams have gone over in the first half in 9 of their last 12 combined. Philadelphia’s defense is not the same as last year with all of their losses. Expect a shoot-out.
Monday at 4:15 PM EST
San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings
49ers Moneyline: -300
Vikings Moneyline: +245
My Pick: 49ers -7
Prime time Kirk Cousins, enough said. Minnesota is without Justin Jefferson, and now they get prime-time Kirk Cousins. Kirk in prime time is not just a joke. He is 2-10 straight up on Monday night. Cousins has been 1-6 against the spread in prime time. At night, he is 11-19 SU and 12-18 vs the spread. Oh, and he is playing the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers will take out their frustrations from Cleveland and give them to the Vikings.
