At this pace, we are just hoping to get two healthy starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl. The NFL is like Hunger Games right now. We could eclipse 55 different starting quarterbacks this weekend. This has created some difficult scripts to predict and leaves Vegas guessing. We have been able to cash in this season regardless, and that is the plan for this week. In this article, we will look at some NFL team betting trends and some public betting trends to help us with our Week 14 NFL Picks. These trends can help you make informed bets.
NFL Betting Trends (Against the Spread):
Home Team – 47% (86-97-20)
Away Team – 53% (97-86-20)
Favorites – 53.6% (98-85-10)
Underdogs – 46.4% (85-98-10)
NFL Betting Trends (Totals)
Overs – 42.7% (82-110)
Unders – 57.3% (110-82)
Week 14 NFL Picks and NFL Betting Trends
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Patriots Moneyline: +230
Steelers Moneyline: -258
Total: 30.5
My Bets: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 / Under 30.5
This is not exactly Tom Brady vs. Ben Roethlisberger, as you can tell by the 30.5 total. The Patriots have gone under in 75% of their games. This may be why 91% of public bets are going under, including mine. There is optimism for the Patriots to cover. 66% of bets have them covering. New England is 2-10 against the spread this year, so I am not as optimistic. Right now, 86% of betters are taking the Steelers moneyline.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
Houston Texans (-3.5) at New York Jets
Texans Moneyline: -190
Jets Moneyline: +175
Total: 32.5
My Bets: Houston Texans -3.5 / Under 32.5
The total has gone under in 13 of the last 15 games for these teams combined. At 32.5 points, it is tempting to take the over, but 95% of the public, including me, are taking the under. Houston has won four of their last five straight up, and 94% of bets are taking the Texans’ moneyline. I am as well, but I am also taking the points. Insert the cigarette in C.J. Stroud’s mouth meme. Wilson, Boyle, or Siemian…Texans by more than four points. Right now, 60% of betters agree with Houston to cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Buccaneers Moneyline: +105
Falcons Moneyline: -118
Total: 39.5
My Bets: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 / Under 39.5
We have some competing trends: Atlanta is 6-2 at home straight up, and Tampa is 5-1 against the spread on the road. This could explain the tight spread. These teams have gone over in six of their last seven games, but this is not Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. I am taking the under while the public likes the over 66% of the time. Right now, the public is split, with 52% taking the Buccaneers to cover. But 63% are taking the Buccaneers’ moneyline. With it being just one point, I will spot the Falcons the points and take the Buccaneers to “upset.”
Detroit Lions (-3) @ Chicago Bears
Lions Moneyline: -160
Bears Moneyline: +150
Total: 43.5
My Bets: Detroit Lions -3 / Under 43.5
Detroit is 6-1 against the spread and straight up on the road in their last seven away games. But, the public is fading them, with 73% of bets going to Chicago +3. The moneyline is all Detroit, 85% of bets are going to the Lions. I am taking Detroit straight up and to cover in this one. David Montgomery, anytime TD is also a lock. Detroit has gone over in eight of their 12 games. This matchup has gone over in four of the last six.
I want to go over, but the early weather reports are not promising. If the weather reports improve I am comfortably taking the over, but as of now, I will play it safe with the under. This is one to watch as the week progresses to see what Vegas is doing with their lines.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns (-3)
Jaguars Moneline: +148
Browns Moneyline: -166
Total: 30.5
My Bets: Cleveland Browns -3 / Under 30.5
C.J. Beathard vs. Joe Flacco wasn’t on my bingo card, but here we are. Both quarterbacks have experience, but Vegas is not expecting fireworks. Probably because the early weather reports are calling for snow and 32 mph winds. I am taking the under unless the weather improves. 82% of public bets are doing the same. The public is taking the Cleveland moneyline 59% of the time. 54% of the public bets are on Cleveland to cover because of their defense.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
Panthers Moneyline: +192
Saints Moneyline: -220
Total: 37.5
My Bets: New Orleans Saints Moneyline / Under 37.5
The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers both have gone under in 66% of their games this year. Right now, the public is taking the under 70% of the time. I am, as well. These offenses are bad. Jameis Winston is expected to start, and the public is taking the Panthers to cover 66% of the time. I have more faith in Jameis, but I do understand playing the safe bet with the moneyline. As of now, 58% of the public is taking the Saints’ moneyline. I am as well.
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Colts Moneyline: -110
Bengals Moneyline: -110
Total: 43.5
My Bets: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 / Under 43.5
The Colts are 5-1 in their last six games against the spread. Cincinnati is coming off an impressive win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jake Browning broke out, and this game could be much better than advertised. But we have some weather warnings that could disrupt things. Right now, the public really likes the Colts. The public bets are on the Colts’ moneyline 68% of the time, but 59% are taking Cincinnati to cover.
The over is getting 68% of the bets. We could see some movement as the week progresses. Keep an eye on the weather and the lines. I would wait to make a bet on this one. It is too far out to get a good idea of the weather. But this could be a windy snow game. That means a lot of running the ball and a shorter game. Usually, this leads to fewer points, and Vegas’ could tip their hand if this over drops.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Rams Moneyline: +290
Ravens Moneyline: -325
Total: 40.5
My Bets: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 / Under 40.5
The theme this week is bad weather. This could be a really windy and rainy game. That could explain the lower over in this one. Both teams have gone under in seven of their twelve games on top of the weather has me taking the under. Right now, 70% of the public is also taking the under. They are still taking the Ravens to cover heavily. 77% of public bets are on Baltimore to cover. Right now, 79% are taking the Ravens’ moneyline, and I will too.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
Vikings Moneyline: -150
Raiders Moneyline: +136
Total: 40.5
My Bets: Minnesota Vikings -3 / Over 40.5
Minnesota is expected to start Joshua Dobbs again. Nick Mullens has returned, and they could use a 4th different starter this season. Justin Jefferson also returned, and that has not phased the public. Minnesota is only getting 52% of the public’s money to cover, and 61% is taking the Raiders’ moneyline. Aiden O’Connell vs. Joshua Dobbs or Nick Mullens has the public taking the under 61% of the time. I am fading the public. Give me the over and Minnesota.
Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Seahawks Moneyline: +440
49ers Moneyline: -550
Total: 46.5
My Bets: San Francisco 49ers -10.5 / Over 46.5
Brock Purdy proved he was pretty relevant last week, dismantling the Philadelphia Eagles. Seattle is ice-cold, losing three straight games. The public is taking Seattle to cover 53% of the time at -10.5. I have too much faith in San Francisco, taking them minus the points. They have covered 58.3% of the time this season. Right now, 97% of the public is taking the 49ers’ moneyline, and I am as well.
This is one of the higher totals this week, and the public is betting on it 68% of the time. San Francisco is red hot right now and has scored an average of 33.5 points in their last four games. I am taking them to cover and taking the over in this one, except for some fantasy points.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Denver Broncos @ Los Angelas Chargers (-2.5)
Broncos Moneyline: +128
Chargers Moneyline: -140
Total: 43.5
My Bets: Denver Broncos +2.5 / Under 43.5
The Chargers are the most underachieving team in football. They have gone under in nine of their last ten games. Denver’s winning streak was broken last week, but they have been playing inspired ball since Miami obliterated them. Their defense, particularly, has been great, and they have gone under in all but one of their last seven games.
Give me the under, and give me the Broncos to upset in this one. The public agrees. 92% have them covering, and 78% are on the Denver moneyline. As far as the over, only 44% are taking it. As I said earlier, these teams are trending to go under, and at 43.5, I will take it.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Bills Moneyline: +110
Chiefs Moneyline: -120
Total: 48.5
My Bets: Kansas City -1.5 / Over 48.5
Buffalo has had a rough season. They have a bad schedule and a ton of injuries, specifically to their defense. Kansas City’s offense has been good but not great this year. Their defense has been great but not good this year. Too many injuries and I have the Chiefs covering. I do think Buffalo can make it interesting, but they are 4-8 against the spread this year. Right now, the public has the over at 51%, and I am taking it as well.
Buffalo is getting 55% of the public money to cover. I am not expecting that with such a short spread and their record against it this year. It must be something about Buffalo in the winter. The public is also taking Buffalo moneyline 55% of the time. Give me Kansas City moneyline, to cover, and give me the over.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Eagles Moneyline: +160
Cowboys Moneyline: -175
Total: 51.5
My Bets: Dallas Cowboys -3.5/ Over 51.5
The Philadelphia Eagles got embarrassed at home last week, and the Cowboys won a nail-biter against Seattle. Dallas’ offense is red hot, scoring 40 or more in four of their last six games, the lowest being 23 points twice. Philadelphia has put up at least 28 in four of their last five games. Expect some fireworks and give me the over, even at 51.5. The public agrees. 74% are taking the over in this one.
Dallas is favored at home. They are 6-0 at home as favorites. Philadelphia is 5-0 on the road as underdogs and 5-1 on the road overall. This is a tough one, but Dallas is red-hot on both sides of the ball. Give me Dallas to cover, and the public agrees 65% of the time. The Cowboys’ moneyline is also getting 79% of public bets right now.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants
Packers Moneyline: -285
Giants Moneyline: +260
Total: 36.5
My Bets: New York Giants +6.5 / Under 36.5
The New York Giants have hit the under in 80% of their last 10 games. Green Bay has been 50/50 with their totals this year. Right now, 92% of the public is on the under. This could be ANOTHER bad-weather game. New York could bring back Tyrod Taylor, who returns from the IR, but Tommy DeVito has won two straight. I don’t see a quarterback change, and we won’t see a big shift in the market either way, in my opinion.
Green Bay has no quarterback controversies, and Jordan Love is red-hot. The public has noticed Green Bay is getting 70% of their money to cover. But, only 51% are betting on the Green Bay Packers moneyline. I am taking Green Bay to cover moneyline, and I am taking the under in this one. No Christian Watson or Aaron Jones for Green Bay could slow them down a little. New York’s defense is also playing well. Unfortunately, their offense is not.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-13)
Titans Moneyline: +590
Dolphins Moneyline: -800
Total: 46.5
My Bets: Miami Dolphins -13 / Over 46.5
Tennessee has gone under in eight of their last 12 games. Miami has gone over in seven of their last 12 games. These competing trends are tough, but the public is confident in the under (89%). Miami has covered the spread in eight of 12 games this year. The public is very confident in Miami, taking them to cover 13 points 72% of the time. Miami’s moneyline is getting 93% of the public’s money as well. I am buying it, too, Miami to cover and the over for me to wrap up my Week 14 NFL Picks!
