For the first time in two months, the PGA Tour returns to the Continental United States. A very good field takes on three golf courses in Palm Springs for the 2024 American Express. As always, here is your early deep-dive of the 2024 American Express and a preview of how to bet.
2024 American Express Preview
The Field
Like in 2023, the 2024 American Express features a very top-heavy field. Highlighting it is World #1 Scottie Scheffler. Birdies are the name of the game at the American Express, and Scottie Scheffler will give himself more than enough good looks for them.
As always, it will be a question of if his putter cooperates to convert them. If it does, he’ll run away with the tournament.
We also will see the return of another top player to the PGA Tour. Daniel Berger will tee it up for the first time since 2022 after recovering from a back injury. While he isn’t one of the elites of the game, Daniel Berger has shown the ability to be a threat to win in any given week. It’s nice to see him back in the fold. Here’s to a quick return to form.
Other notables in the field include Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Will Zalatoris.
For the full field, click here.
The Golf Courses
The American Express is a pro-am format that is played across three golf courses. Everyone will play across Thursday through Saturday the Stadium Course at PGA West, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club once. After Saturday, the Top 65 and ties will play the final round on Sunday at the Stadium Course.
The Stadium Course at PGA West was designed in 1986 by Pete Dye. It was built as a “sequel” to TPC Sawgrass. The course first played host to the Bob Hope Classic in 1987, but the pros complained that it was way too hard. It was removed from the tournament after only one year.
After a couple of redesigns, the tournament came back to the Stadium Course in 2016. It is the “hardest” golf course in the tournament (more on this in a bit). The Stadium Course historically plays a little easier than the Nicklaus Tournament Course and much easier than La Quinta Country Club.
There are several holes at the Stadium Course at PGA West that look almost identical to that of its TPC Sawgrass counterpart. The 5th at Sawgrass and the 9th at the Stadium Course is one example. The 10th at Sawgrass and the 12th at the Stadium Course is another.
But the most blatant rip-off of Sawgrass by the Stadium Course is the 17th hole:
17th Hole – TPC Sawgrass
17th Hole – The Stadium Course
The 17th at the Stadium Course is a virtual photocopy of the 17th at Sawgrass. Both are short Par 3’s featuring an island green and a small greenside bunker. The only difference between the two is the island green at TPC Sawgrass is supported by railroad ties, while the 17th at the Stadium Course is supported by rock outcroppings (hence the nickname Alcatraz).
And like the 17th at TPC Sawgrass, the 17th at the Stadium Course is the scene for some brutal blowups:
The Stadium Course also features its infamous canyon-sized bunker left of the Par 5 16th green. The bunker is about 18 feet below the putting surface and provides for a nasty up and down. For the pros, most can pull off the shot. For amateurs, however, finding that bunker is a disaster.
Here are some highs and lows from that bunker from past tournaments:
Last year, the underwent Phase 1 of its two-part renovation. Phase 1 involved the removal of approximately 200 trees and the restoration of ground cover and bushes. The second phase will involve a restoration of all the greens and bunkers.
Part 2 was supposed to happen during the summer of 2023. However, that project was delayed until after the 2024 America Express.
The next course featured at the 2023 American Express is the Nicklaus Tournament Course:
The Nicklaus Tournament Course looks like any golf course in Florida or the Southwest. And it is essentially a watered-down version of the Stadium Course. For amateurs, there are several ways to get in trouble on it. But for the professionals, there’s not much adversity to it.
The fairways are a little wider at the Nicklaus than at the Stadium Course. And in 2020, the greens were expanded back to their original design. They are much larger than the Stadium Course greens now.
The last course in the rotation is La Quinta Country Club. The course opened in 1959 and was renovated in 1999 by Damian Pazcuzzo. It has been part of the American Express rotation of golf courses since 1972:
The sightlines from the tee are tighter than they are at PGA West. But besides that, the golf course has almost no defenses for anyone on the PGA Tour. Most fairway bunkers can easily be carried off the tee and save for a water hazard off the 16th and 18th. It takes some serious effort to shoot over par at La Quinta. This is the easiest course in the rotation.
Betting Strategies
To begin the 2024 American Express Preview, here is general information about the Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club.
Yardage
- Stadium Course: 7,187 Yards
- Nicklaus Tournament Course: 7,147 Yards
- La Quinta Country Club: 7,060 Yards
Par
- Stadium Course: 72
- Nicklaus Tournament Course: 72
- La Quinta Country Club: 72
Average Green Size
- Stadium Course: 5,000 Sq. Ft.
- Nicklaus Tournament Course: 7,000 Sq. Ft.
- La Quinta Country Club: 4,773 Sq. Ft.
Both the Stadium Course and La Quinta Country Club feature greens much smaller than the PGA Tour average. The Nicklaus Tournament Course, however, features greens much larger than the PGA Tour average.
Agronomy
- Stadium Course
- Greens: Tridwarf Bermuda, overseeded with Poa Trivialis
- Collars/Approaches: Tifgreen 38 Bermuda, overseeded with Ryegrass
- Fairways: Tifgreen 38 Bermuda, overseeded with Ryegrass
- Rough: Overseeded Ryegrass Rough – 1 inch. Non-Overseeded Rough: Dormant Tifgreen 328 Bermuda – 2-inch
- Nicklaus Tournament Course
- Greens: TifEagle Bermuda, overseeded with Poa Trivialis
- Collars/Approaches: Tifgreen 38 Bermuda, overseeded with Ryegrass
- Fairways: Tifgreen 38 Bermuda
- Rough: Forman bermuda – 2 inch
- La Quinta Country Club
- Greens: Tridwarf Bermuda, overseeded with Poa Trivialis & Perennial Ryegrass
- Collars/Approaches: Tifgreen 38 Bermuda, overseeded with Ryegrass
- Fairways: Tifgreen 38 Bermuda, overseeded with Ryegrass
- Rough: Common bermuda – 1.75 inch, overseeded with Ryegrass
All three golf courses have virtually the exact same agronomy. All of them feature bermuda greens that are overseeded with poa trivialis. This is standard practice for bermuda golf courses that experience cooler winter months.
This also makes the ball roll a little differently than it would on a regular bermuda surface. Players such as Adam Hadwin, who notoriously struggles to putt on Bermuda, love overseeded greens because they roll a little smoother and don’t have as much grain to them.
The rough is a little different at every golf course. The stadium course features 1-inch overseeded ryegrass as the primary rough, with non-overseeded Bermuda on the outside of that.
In most years, the non-overseeded Bermuda is still dormant and has a brownish complexion. But in years where temperatures are warmer, occasionally, you’ll see some of the Bermuda emerge from dormancy and create some inconsistent lies.
Conversely, the Nicklaus Tournament Course does not overseed its rough and lets it stay dormant during the winter. Lastly, La Quinta Country Club overseeds all its rough.
However, the rough is so short that it’s not penal at all to hit into it. In most cases, players draw fantastic lies in it and are able to still get great contact on the ball on the approach shots.
Past Champions (with approximate pre-tournament odds)
- 2023: Jon Rahm (+650)
- 2022: Hudson Swafford (220/1)
- 2021: Si Woo Kim (55/1)
- 2020: Andrew Landry (200/1)
- 2019: Adam Long (300/1)
Tournament favorite Jon Rahm won the 2023 American Express. But from 2019-2022 the winner came from 200/1+ on the odds board. All three golf courses aren’t overly daunting and can often turn into a putting contest. That enables more players to have a chance to win so long as they can find a hot putter.
Average Scoring
- Stadium Course
- 2023: -2.74
- 2022: -1.46
- 2021: -1.20
- 2020: -1.64
- Nicklaus Tournament Course
- 2023: -3.28
- 2022: -1.74
- 2021: -1.05
- 2020: -2.77
- La Quinta Country Club
- 2023: -2.42
- 2022: -2.08
- 2021: N/A (not held due to COVID)
- 2020: -2.83
Up until 2023, the Stadium Course played much tougher than the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta. While those who avoid trouble can put up a good score, there are a lot of penalty areas that can lead to some big numbers.
But in 2023, while the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta played as easily as they normally do, the Stadium Course played unusually easily. It played more than a stroke tougher than any of the prior three events at the golf course.
Why was this? It might have something to do with the massive tree removal to restore the ground cover. This also took out one of the lone deterrents to hitting an offline tee shot. In the absence of thick and punishing rough, there is very little penalty for hitting an approach shot from it.
Unfortunately, no strokes gained data is maintained for either the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta. But given the historical scoring averages on each golf course, it’s safe to assume that they would rank as one of the easiest golf courses across the board on the PGA Tour.
As for the Stadium Course, here is its rank in every relative statistical category since 2015 (out of 87 golf courses played):
- Off the Tee: 21st
- Approach: 44th
- Around the Green: 82nd
- Putting: 70th
Up until a few years ago, the Stadium Course was one of the Top 10 toughest driving golf courses on the PGA Tour. But last year, it ranked 22nd out of 45 golf courses in terms of difficulty. One can probably chalk this up with the removal of trees on the golf course.
And one can see how the tree removal affected approach play as well. Before last year, the approach shots ranked slightly above average in terms of difficulty. But in 2023, it ranked 5th easiest. With virtually non-existent penal rough and a clear view of each green, there was almost no difference between hitting your approach shots from the fairway or the rough.
Predictive Skillsets
Here are the predictive skillset charts for Waialae Country Club (per DataGolf). This chart will preview what types of players should excel at the 2024 American Express:
Here’s a summary from all five categories for all four rounds (with Stadium Course counting double)
- Driving Distance: +, +, +, – , favor long hitters
- Driving Accuracy: -, -, +, +, net neutral
- Approach Play: -, -, +, +, net neutral
- Around Green: +, +, -, +, favor around-the-green performance
- Putting: -, -, +, +, net neutral
The only skill set that seems to stand out the most over the typical PGA Tour stop is driving distance. Both the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course tend to favor longer hitters overall. While other categories might be more or less predictive than the typical PGA tour setup, nothing in particular stands out, and the differences are relatively minimal.
However, given the tournament has recently seen short-hitting winners like Andrew Landry, Adam Long, and Si Woo Kim, one doesn’t need to possess elite length off the tee to get the job done at the American Express.
Next, let’s look at approach shot distances to target from the Stadium Course (per DatGolf)
At the Stadium Course, there is an above-average volume of shots from less than 125 yards and over 250+ yards (i.e., the four Par 5’s). And there are significantly fewer shots between 125-250 yards than the typical PGA Tour venue.
However, there doesn’t appear to be a significant concentration of shots in a particular range at all. Players will be tested through the bag at the Stadium Course.
As for the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta, given their straightforward nature, the short yardage, and a setup that doesn’t really deter hitting drivers a lot, there is likely a good amount of short irons at these venues. As such, overall, bettors should favor shorter approach shots a little more this week.
In Tournament Strokes Gained
Here are distribution charts of the variance in total strokes gained based on tournament performance since 2021 (for the Stadium Course only). These charts demonstrate what forces have an influence on how a player separates themselves from the field (per DataGolf). It also will preview how the leaderboard at the 2024 American Express will shake out:
2023
2022
2021
During the last two American Express’s, in-tournament iron play not only had a higher correlation to Strokes Gained than the typical PGA Tour setup, but significantly higher than all the other categories.
In fact, last year’s American Express saw approach play as the only category with a higher correlation than a typical PGA Tour setup. Driving around the green and putting all had less of an impact.
It could be that because of the tree removal outside of the fairways and the absence of penal rough. It made hitting iron shots much easier overall.
Therefore, it became an iron and putting contest at the Stadium Course. And while we don’t have similar data at either the Nicklaus Tournament or La Quinta, given their routinely comically low scores, it’s likely a similar scenario. Expect more of the same in 2024.
